Over 30 feet below normal Lake Travis near Spicewood Tx is just a river bed.
Most of Texas has been under serious drought conditions for about a year and a half. Much of the state is under Extreme Drought conditions. The agricultural/ranching/rural areas of the county are most affected, as the drought has a direct and significant impact on the livelihood of those making their living in a way dependent on nature. The importance of rain to daily life is reflected in this sign at a church in rural George West, Texas, in Live Oak, County.
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I doubt it. I'm measuring the sub-20C area at the surface in the past 30 days, and that's about to get completely cut off, even as El Nino in the 3.4 region as basically peaked and the Walker Circulation is returning to the west, as you said. But the warm pool is actually expanding, and this suggests a massive slowdown of the ocean conveyer. At one point in late December, the Humboldt cut-off at the Chilean coast warmed 2C in five days. Now the southeastern end of the El Nino pool is simply advancing southeast, while part of it is pooling into the Ross Ice shelf in Antartica (should be visible in the image on my blog). Also, the Gulf stream meandered in the past week, taking a shortcut and producing a deep cold eddy. The Indian Ocean temperatures have also been fluctuating...dramatically. El Nino Modoki is supposed to be predictable, but this season has been anything but, due to the co-interactions with other oscillations. By the way, does anyone have reliable links that show that an expert meteorologist thinks there is something unusual going on, that preferably is not a blog and does not require subscription?
Holy crap! Another squall front (cold front being fed by snowsqualls)?! And this time they're expecting it to clash with system snow and more humidity?
...now that's the kinda interesting observation that I come here to read...
1/2/2010 3:41 PM
Cold air has settled across the South, chilling residents and threatening the Florida Peninsula with a hard freeze. The main question now is whether snow will disrupt travel and school next week.
Cold air has plunged far enough south that much of Florida will have to endure multiple nights of freezing temperatures. This AccuWeather.com Headline has more information.
On the heels of the arctic blast gripping the East is another, set to dive southward around the middle of next week. The storm at the leading edge of this cold shot could spread snow across the South.
This storm will first move into the Northwest Sunday night into Monday. It may then dive southward through the Rockies, then ride along the Gulf Coast before paralleling the East Coast.
During the Wednesday to Friday timeframe, snow could fall from Dallas, Texas, to Jackson, Miss., to Montgomery, Ala., to Charlotte, N.C., to Richmond, Va.
Related to the Story
* More on Next Week's Cold Shot
* Day 1 to 5 Temperatures
* Wind Chill Index
* Southeast Regional Video
* More Stories
There may be enough snow to disrupt travel and lead to school cancellations.
It should be stressed that the area outlined above is not set in stone. The zone could shift to the north or even farther south.
It is also possible that steady snow never even materializes, and there will be nothing more than flurries.
Continue to check back with AccuWeather.com during the upcoming days as more details become clearer.
SouthNews
but i think its too early to tell tho.. soon we will figure it out!
114hours GFS
120hours GFS
126hours GFS
132hours GFS
138hours GFS
but with those runs.. I think the temps will be colder.. I think those runs will change a bit and show the rain/snow line to go further south than the model thinks. but it shall be interesting.. just my opinion right now.. by looking at it.. ;)
It is simply what El Nino does. And interrupting the Humboldt is exactly what ruins the fishing for the Peruvians.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&num=50&q=%22humboldt+current%22+nino+override&aq=f&oq=&aqi=
Thousands of results for "Humboldt Current" Nino override...from journals to textbooks to blogs to news to military.
Here is an illustration from the US Army:
This what this guy thinks and all.. Do ya'll agree or ?
STORM COMING THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MAINE WILL GET BLASTED BY POWERFUL STORM TONIGHT...
Hey, if you live up in Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, please post your observations and pictures of the Blizzard to our Facebook Fan page. Everyone in our operations looks at our fan page for weather information from our users and use your pictures in our news stories. So please post and become a fan.... http://www.facebook.com/AccuWeather
The cold across the East is here to stay all next week. I will not be surprised that some schools close due to the cold weather. It's 19 degrees at my house with winds gusting to 30 mph, so it's very brutal outside.
The blizzard is starting up across Maine and for you folks, it's going to be quite a storm. I know some of the Old Timers may say it was not all the bad, but for many, it will be very bad storms in regards to the wind, snow and cold weather. I expect up to 30 inches of snow across parts of central Maine.
Next Friday, we could be dealing with another blizzard along the East coast. I might be out of my mind to go against the models, but the NAO is predicted to stay very low and trough that comes East will lock off upon hitting the coast. If the storm does come as I plan, it will be cold storm with temps in the teens while it's snowing. I expect this afternoons run of the Euro will have more of a storm. I see the GFS continues to try and pick up the storm, but it's having the normal problems.
Map of Australia!
Wouldn't it be easier to post a link to the accuweather website instead of trying to post it all here?
Midwest!
A lot of excellent details here: http://www.sbg.ac.at/ipk/avstudio/pierofun/atmo/elnino.htm
Expected effects of an El Nino:
(Peruvian Current is synonymous with Humboldt Current)
And a part of the discussion (lots and lots more at the link):
The abnormally strong winds originating from the west push masses of warm surface water from the equatorial region against the South-American coast, and are ultimately deflected towards Mexico, Peru, and Ecuador, creating an area of warm water thousands of kilometers in length (fig.14). The mixed layers deepen, and the deeper cold waters are burried underneath. The sun warms the surface layer still further, thus enhancing the effect. The thermocline falls, and along with it the pool of nutrient rich water. In an immediate effect, this warm blob of water blocks off the upwelling of colder, nutrient rich water driving anchovies into starvation (fig.15). In addition to the torpedoed effect of the local fishing industry, these fish do no longer support large population of fish-feeding birds, whose droppings (guano) are mined for fertilizer. With the disappearance of anchovies and other marine organisms, predators like seabirds, further up the food-chain, experience a drastic decline in nutritonal resources. El Nio accounted for severe drops in the seabird populations in 1957 and 1965. In a long-lasting ENSO event, the dissolved seawater oxygen content becomes depleted.
Dear friend! I share you enthusiasm concerning the current World-wide events, compliments of this Modiki El Nino. The events are bizarre, warming of the Central Pacific Ocean, warming of the far Western Pacific and the Southern Indian Ocean, near Australia. The Modiki El Nino is creating some wild weather.
The positive PNA, means there is ridging off the West Coast. To the west of the ridge, there is a huge trough in the Eastern Pacific. The Sub-Tropical Jet, from China into the Southwestern US is very, very active, feeding impulses of energy into the Baja California, Northern Mexico into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, impulses of energy ride up into British Columbia and down into the Great Plains into the Southern Plains and North western Gulf of Mexico.
There is a negative AO and NAO. These 2 features are creating a large upper level trough in the upper atmosphere across the Eastern Two-Thirds of the US, causing a Northwesterly flow aloft, ferrying Arctic Air into the Eastern US into the Southeast US. A Polar Vortex is at 75N/120W, this surface and upper level feature is pulling in Siberian air across the North Pole, pooling this up in Northwestern Canada. The Blocking High off of Greenland is blocking the Low pressure areas from traveling northeastward and out to Northern Atlantic. The 969MB Massive surface Low off of Maine in heading westward into Quebec/Ontario, deepening the upper level trough over the Eastern Two-Thirds of the US in the upper levels and pulling down more Arctic air into Eastern Canada, across the Great Lakes, down the East Coast into the Southeast and Florida.
These events working together are currently pulling a short-wave energy impulse into British Columbia, then down into the Great Plains, deepening the Upper Level trough over the US even further. Combined with the Low off Maine these are going to build up a massive area of High Pressure, close to 1055MB over Montana, and send that, a huge chunk of the Siberian/Arctic air mass down the east side of the Rockies into TX. These events, working together will bring very cold air into the Southern Plains into the Deep South, the coldest air we've seen since 1996, per the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX office. The short-wave will arrive in the Northwest flow aloft, near the Texas Coast on late Wednesday, creating the possibility of a major Gulf Coast/East Coast snow event. Models are still questioning how far the short-wave impulse travels before developing a surface Low over the Gulf of Mexico.
Climate variability is a part of weather. I've been studying weather as a hobby for 41 yrs. This is a very unusual pattern. I would not be alarmed about the ocean currents changing course. The North Atlantic Conveyor Current is functioning just fine, as well as the other ocean current systems around the world. The abnormalities are well within the normal El Nino/La Nina cycle. The Modiki El Nino is not as common, it warms other parts of the Pacific and Indian Ocean than the normal El Nino, creating the wild, weather we're experiencing today. Please remember, "the sky is not falling". By May 2010, things will be near normal worldwide.
Depends what metric you look at.
By the 3.4, I think it is peaking now. A couple of weeks will tell...
Have to go, G'Nite, all.
Shuttle isn't up, won't be till February 7th.
Link
Forecast Low 16° F
Actual Temp Right Now 2.0 °F
Little colder than forecast
1.8 °F
already.. lol
Can we fast forward to 1-7-10 please :0)
Soon to be
CONUS 24 Hr Forecast Surface Map
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
CAMP SPRINGS, MD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries: Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version] Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
308 PM EST SAT JAN 02 2010
VALID 00Z SUN JAN 03 2010 - 12Z MON JAN 04 2010
A DEEP LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL ROTATE CLOSER TO THE MAINE
COAST THEN ROTATE AWAY FROM THE COAST TO THE EAST. THE STORM WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST
... THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME ... A REGION OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. WITH
THE DEEP LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
... STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
COUNTRY. WELL TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE ... UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION ... WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW OVER THE REGION INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY ... A PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST TRIGGERING MORE RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
Well an early Happy Birthday to you Patrap :o). You may get to go "sleet skating" on your birthday. In Arlington, TX in the Thanksgiving Sleet Storm in the early 90's, 3 of my 5 kiddos and I skated down a hill just sliding on our boots. It was fun.
hmmm.. something might b brewing.. brewing, i mean maybe a storm system will clash with the cold artic air in the south.. time will tell shortly
Yeah, Tampico, Mexico is gonna freak out when their highs are only near 60F when that happens!
I can Ski Down the Miss River Big Levee's for some fun,..but one has to be wary of River Road traffic.
Dec 11th 2008
Yes, please beware of traffic. However, if you do have a sleet/snow event, with cold air in place, you may have the roads all to your self.
lol.. maybe u will get snow on ur birthday.. or maybe sooner.. its got to happen sooner or later.. ;)
The previous post:
Some better warm air advection setting up in the 18Z GFS model in response to a surface feature in the GOM and some diffluence provided by energy swinging through the base of the mid level trough well N of the Gulf coast. 12Z was much weaker in setting up any kind of warm conveyor belt/isentropic lift. The 30knot LLJ (kind of a new and important feature) shown would do wonders for the snow totals by bringing in moisture-but would push any snow potential north and away from the GOM coast. An interpretation (guess) of this moisture axis penciled in on the 5 GFS frames linked below. All from todays 18Z beginning Thursday morning (114 hrs) and ending Friday morning (138hrs). The northern tip of each arrow would trace a path of heavier snow across the norther part of MS, AL, GA and on into SC and NC. We'll see!
114hrs
120 hrs
126hrs
132hrs
138hrs
The NWS DFW, TX has blaring, bright graphics up on the NWS sight. In Ft Worth-Dallas, TX, CH 4,5,8,11,21,27,33 are all warning people sounding a lil' like Paul Revere, saying, " The Arctic Blast is coming, the Arctic Blast is coming"!!
A new young bride calls her mother in tears. She
sobs, 'Robert doesn't appreciate what I do for him.'
'Now, now,' her mother comforted, 'I am sure it was
all just a misunderstanding, dear.'
'No, mother,' the young woman laments. 'I bought a
frozen turkey loaf and he yelled at me about the price.'
'Well, that is being miserly,' the mother agreed, 'Those
turkey rolls are only a few dollars.'
The young woman explained, 'No, mother it wasn't the
price of the turkey roll, it was the airplane ticket.'
'Airplane ticket??? What does an airplane ticket have to
do with turkey rolls???' asked her mother, confused.
The young woman quickly responded, 'Well mother, when
I went to fix it, I looked at the directions on the back
and it said, 'PREPARE FROM A FROZEN STATE'.
So I flew to Florida!'
o snap
Sleet falling after the Snow.
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