Danielle steams towards Bermuda; Earl organizing over eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 03:20 PM GMT em 26 de Agosto de 2010

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Hurricane Danielle continues on its steady northwesterly path towards Bermuda, as a respectable Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. However, the hurricane has had its troubles this morning--Danielle wrapped a significant amount of dry air into its core between 4am - 8am EDT this morning, and Infrared satellite loops show that Danielle's cloud tops warmed late this morning, indicating that this dry air reduced the vigor of Danielle's thunderstorms. Danielle has managed to quickly mix out most of this dry air and reform its broken eyewall early this afternoon, as seen on recent visible satellite imagery (Figure 1.) We'll get a better idea of Danielle's intensity on Friday afternoon, when the first Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled. The storm is still too far from land to reach with their airplanes today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle. A huge thunderstorm has blown up on the west side of the eyewall, giving the hurricane a rather lopsided appearance.

Intensity forecast for Danielle
Once Danielle recovers from its current troubles with dry air, warm 29°C SSTs combined with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots should allow the storm to intensify. There is substantial dry air to the west and south of Danielle, though, and it is quite possible that some unexpected increase in shear could inject dry air into the hurricane at any time over the next few days. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that this shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next three days, but then rapidly rise to a high 20 - 40 knots on Sunday. Danielle will probably reach peak intensity Saturday night or Sunday morning, near the time of its closest approach to Bermuda. NHC is giving Danielle a 41% chance of becoming a major Category 3 hurricane.

Track forecast for Danielle
On Saturday, a trough of low pressure that is expected to move off the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada should begin pulling Danielle due north, with the hurricane passing east of Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 25% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Danielle, and a 1% chance of getting hurricane force winds. This is a substantial reduction from the odds given in the 5am forecast, which were 37% and 6%, respectively. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves this weekend for Bermuda's offshore waters. The most likely scenario once Danielle passes north of Bermuda is for the storm to recurve out to sea, missing the U.S. and Canadian coasts. All of the computer models currently call for this scenario. The possibility of Danielle stalling north of Bermuda and potentially tracking northwest towards the U.S. and Canadian coasts, as called for by the NOGAPS model in some of its runs yesterday, is looking less likely.

History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 5 - 10% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. However, Danielle will bring high surf conditions to the U.S. East Coast beginning this weekend. The latest wave forecast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model (which uses the GFS model as its prediction for the position and intensity of hurricanes), calls for waves from Danielle to begin hitting the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. These waves will build to 7 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from Northern Florida to North Carolina by Sunday. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 5 - 8 foot waves Saturday, and 7 - 10 feet on Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle, Earl, and a new tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa (possibly to be designated 97L?)

Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl developed late yesterday afternoon, one week ahead of when climatology suggests the fifth named storm of the year should occur in the Atlantic. Earl is currently very weak and ragged looking, thanks to dry air and wind shear. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows an upper level trough of low pressure to the north of Earl is bringing a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of the storm, though the center of Earl is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The shear has injected dry air into the storm, disrupting the circulation. As a result, Earl has a rather disorganized clumpy appearance on satellite imagery, and the center jumped 30 miles to the south this morning to reposition itself farther from the shear, and closer to the main region of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next three days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is not scheduled until Sunday afternoon.

Forecast for Earl
Wind shear is predicted to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. SSTs will steadily warm--to 28°C on Friday, and 29°C by Sunday. Earl may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days. In combination, these factors should allow for a slow intensification of Earl into a hurricane 4 - 5 days from now.

History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle's. As Earl enters the central Atlantic 4 - 5 days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that is steering Danielle to the north. This trough should be able to turn Earl far enough to the northwest so that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Earl out to sea, east of Bermuda. The long range 6 - 10 day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models have consistently been calling for Earl to turn north and follow Danielle, bringing Earl very close to Bermuda next week. This is a reasonable forecast, since Danielle is large enough and strong enough to create a low pressure "path of least resistance" for Earl to follow northwestward towards Bermuda.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
A new tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Several of the computer models develop this wave 3 - 6 days from now, and I can't see any reason why this would not occur. Conditions for tropical cyclone development will remain favorable in the Eastern Atlantic for at least the next week, and several of these models successfully predicted the development of both Danielle and Earl well in advance. The new wave will follow a track similar to that of Danielle and Earl, with an unknown potential for eventually affecting any land areas.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Frank has moved away away from the Mexican coast, and does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Txwxchaser:
This ques. may have been asked before...but what is difference between Early cycle and Dynamic cycle models that are posted occasionally? Thx.
From what I understand. The early models are basis on statistical/climatology and the dynamic is based on a composite of reliable data input. Of course, I don't know what I speaking about, but I bet now you will get a correct answer to your question.
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luis 1995 at the bottom to the right

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Quoting StormW:


Hi Storm, any changes to your thinking on the GOM?

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Quoting BtnTx:
No you are not. I am probably one of the first members. I am considered a "charter member" from 2001.


Yet you have a ways to go to catch up to Taz on posts, ;>)
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1922. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Danielle looks weird!



Dry air is our friend. SE quad is full of it.

Member Since: Novembro 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Quoting Levi32:


Isn't it that way every year? Lol.


I don't know, I am waiting to see what pans out LOL
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Quoting StormW:



i hop you no that that map is 6 too 8hrs old and not the best map too ues
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks.

For the first time in a while we are in a wait and see mode again. Waiting for Danielle to head up and out, waiting to see if Earl goes farther South and West than forecasted and waiting to see what becomes of 97L.

Then, we will be waiting to see if the storms stop recurving.

Could this be the year of waiting ??


yes it is also the year of sometime next week and in 7 to 10 days.
jajajajaja

Those are just 2 of the post popular comments this year. jaja
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Quoting BtnTx:
No you are not. I am probably one of the first members. I am considered a "charter member" from 2001.


I saw a couple of y'all on here last night from 2001 and 2002. Do you get a tee shirt or something with that charter member status?
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Thanks all! Maybe if I grow a set of........ naaaaahhhhhhh!!! LOL
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1916. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks.

For the first time in a while we are in a wait and see mode again. Waiting for Danielle to head up and out, waiting to see if Earl goes farther South and West than forecasted and waiting to see what becomes of 97L.

Then, we will be waiting to see if the storms stop recurving.

Could this be the year of waiting ??


Isn't it that way every year? Lol.
Member Since: Novembro 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Quoting will40:


lmao Taz better stop while you ahead lol



good thinking back too my blog for fun
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http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

The above is a nice loop of everything to see....in WAterVapor....Gotta say that is one big developing high in the middle of the Country that will move off for a possible blocker of either Earl or 97L for sure....HUM!
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Danielle looks weird!

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1911. will40
Quoting Tazmanian:



thats a good joke lol


i was playing with stormW


lmao Taz better stop while you ahead lol
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1910. jeebsa
http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/track.gif
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1909. Skyepony (Mod)
Txwxchaser~

b. Early versus Late Models

Forecast models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether they are available to the forecaster during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC forecast cycle, which begins with the 1200 UTC synoptic time and ends with the release of an official forecast at 1500 UTC. The 1200 UTC run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 1600 UTC, an hour after the forecast is released. Thus, the 1200 UTC GFS would be considered a "late" model since it could not be used to prepare the 1200 UTC official forecast. Conversely, the BAM models are generally available within a few minutes of the time they are initialized. Therefore, they are termed "early" models. Model timeliness is listed in Table 1.

Due to their complexity, dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique exists to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast so that it applies to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (0600 UTC) run of the GFS would be smoothed and then adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 1200 UTC) would match the observed 1200 UTC position and intensity of the TC. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model that becomes part of the most current available guidance for the 1200 UTC forecast cycle. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, largely for historical reasons, as "interpolated" models.
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Good evening folks.

For the first time in a while we are in a wait and see mode again. Waiting for Danielle to head up and out, waiting to see if Earl goes farther South and West than forecasted and waiting to see what becomes of 97L.

Then, we will be waiting to see if the storms stop recurving.

Could this be the year of waiting ??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1907. BtnTx
Quoting HCW:


I like them also but it makes me feel old since I am the only one still around from the old school days :)
No you are not. I am probably one of the first members. I am considered a "charter member" from 2001.
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1906. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1905. Levi32
Quoting MoltenIce:
Earl seems to be following a track similar to Hugo IMO.






Along with a couple dozen other storms...countless Cape Verde storms take that track through 40-50W and then diverge into a spray.
Member Since: Novembro 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Look at all that moisture floating around in the GOM, a spin up event is possible over the next couple days.
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Quoting Txwxchaser:
i just asked my 10th question in the past 2 weeks and not one answer. Am I invisible or just have to be part of the good ole boy network to learn here? Jeez...just trying to learn...guess i'll just lurk and stay outta the way..... :(


We went over this with baylady earlier. You need a pretty face on that avatar in order to get questions answered. Its kind of the weather nerds toll system.
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1902. Levi32
.
Member Since: Novembro 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Quoting Txwxchaser:
This ques. may have been asked before...but what is difference between Early cycle and Dynamic cycle models that are posted occasionally? Thx.
Where's Nrt when you need him? I really don't know the difference, I just find the dynamical package to be far more reliable most of the time.
Member Since: Setembro 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Good evening everyone....Future Fiona lookin good!
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1899. KBH
Quoting stormshed:


seasons 2004 and 2005 i beleve both had the four horsemen an i think it was September.

not sure if fujiwara.. effect explains it
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I've been reading for a day or two without much to input here, - but since DestinJeff made me laugh and DeCloak yesterday, -- it's time I add my forecast.


All the cv storms and wave's will recurve between now and Sept 14 and form a large circle of at least 5, - it might be 7 - major hurricanes revolving around each other in the mid atlantic - and in the center of it all will be a picture of DestinJeff's avatar.


At 7:31 9-15-10 - StormW will call this first time ever witnessed event the RingOHaOHrosiewharrie effect. and Storm will also aBlogize to the entire Blog that he never thought it would happen, that's why he did not call it earlier when he suspected it would happen.

Ike will start drinking at noon that day and just smile.


Levi's youtube service will be cut off for overbandwith clicks abuse.


and Jason will ride in In Triumph and Proclaim.


Fish, all FISH...



Posted in jest, - hope Admin does not delete or ban.

I enjoy reading, sincerely doo.

Re-Cloaking now.


:)



Maybe someone with photoshop skills can give us a visual of it.


wink

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Quoting Txwxchaser:
i just asked my 10th question in the past 2 weeks and not one answer. Am I invisible or just have to be part of the good ole boy network to learn here? Jeez...just trying to learn...guess i'll just lurk and stay outta the way..... :(


No, don't do that. I don't get some questions answered either. Not sure why......maybe they just don't want to talk about that particular matter at that time.......eventually you will get a reply....I'm doing it. :)
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Admin,
This post by TAZ should not count. I would ask you to please deduct one for weird overtones.



thats a good joke lol


i was playing with stormW
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1895. SLU
Very impressive parade on display here

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my post 1854. Can anyone give me an answer?I've asked 10 questions the past 2 weeks and not one of them answered. just trying to learn here. Are my posts invisible? Jeez.
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.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
It's the quality of the comments Taz, not the quantity, just kidding ya keep posting Taz!


ok
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I have decided to wait until the 11PM information comes out on both Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl before issuing my blog.
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Earl seems to be following a track similar to Hugo IMO.




Member Since: Agosto 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 784
1885. breald
Quoting TampaSpin:
I amazed when you hit show average how many bloggers disappear.....wow.


Who determines if a post is average? How does that work?
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Quoting Josihua2:



is this the herbert box
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Quoting Huracaneer:
It wasn't that long ago that a good part of the blog was saying "slow season, it's over" and now we are likely to have 3 named storms at the same time! It's like a light switch, StormW was right (no surprise there).


Just last weekend while Danielle was struggling to stay alive as a TS, I posted that, based on everything I was seeing, it was very likely we'd have three simultaneous named storms by this coming weekend, and I was roundly hooted. Just goes to show you... ;-)
Member Since: Novembro 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13613
Quoting Txwxchaser:
i just asked my 10th question in the past 2 weeks and not one answer. Am I invisible or just have to be part of the good ole boy network to learn here? Jeez...just trying to learn...guess i'll just lurk and stay outta the way..... :(
What's your question?
Member Since: Setembro 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Tazmanian:
they cant stop me now lol


am on my way too 60,000 commets i get there by this weekend and 70,000 made by the end of next week
It's the quality of the comments Taz, not the quantity, just kidding ya keep posting Taz!
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1880. Levi32
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
My thoughts on this year so far. We seem to be getting in a pattern where these long track CV storms keep beating down the ridge and more and more troughs come off as fall approaches, it is going to get harder for any to make to the US. One might sneak through and threaten the East Coast. As far as GOM threats, they will have to be home grown. I am especially worried about a WCarib storm later in the season.


CV storms don't "beat down the ridge". It sorta makes sense to think about it that way but it just isn't true.
Member Since: Novembro 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
i just asked my 10th question in the past 2 weeks and not one answer. Am I invisible or just have to be part of the good ole boy network to learn here? Jeez...just trying to learn...guess i'll just lurk and stay outta the way..... :(
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Quoting Tazmanian:



hello my love
Ummmmmm....
Member Since: Setembro 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1876. scott39
Good evening, Will the high ridge change in strength over the Atlantic during September?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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