Otto transitioning to a tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:35 PM GMT em 07 de Outubro de 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

Subtropical Storm Otto, the 15th named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Otto is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern Lesser Antilles. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 2) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen in several locations over the past three days, and the St. Thomas Airport officially recorded 9.30" of rain so far from Otto. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for both the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico today. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of Subtropical Storm Otto taken at 12:55pm EDT October 6, 2010.

Satellite loops show Otto's heaviest thunderstorms lie in two bands to the south, many hundreds of miles from the storm's center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system over Otto has pumped cold, dry air aloft into the storm, keeping it from being fully tropical. However, the upper low is weakening, and Otto has recently developed a burst of heavy thunderstorms near its center, and very tropical storm-like spiral bands are now developing to the east and south of Otto's center. Otto is fast becoming fully tropical, and will be called Tropical Storm Otto later today. The storm's newly developing spiral bands will mostly stay offshore, but a few heavy rain showers capable of dumping 1 - 2 inches of rain may affect the Turks and Caicos Islands today, as well as the northern Dominican Republic. The heavier rains in Otto's old rain band over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will continue to dump flooding rains in those locations through tonight. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday. Given the very warm waters of 28 - 29°C and low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots today, Otto may approach hurricane strength before high wind shear in excess of 20 knots impacts the storm Friday night.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles west of Jamaica. The disturbance has a moderate area of intense thunderstorms that brought close to two inches of rain to Grand Cayman Island over the past day. The disturbance is under a high 15 - 25 knots of wind shear, and is not likely to develop significantly today. The disturbance is headed south at 10 - 15 mph, and will bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. None of the models develop the disturbance, but it does have some potential for slow development beginning on Friday when it will be off the coast of Nicaragua, in a region of lower wind shear and higher moisture. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.

Monsoon flooding kills 139 in Asia
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 91 people and left 100 more missing. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 48 people, with 23 people still missing. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains of up to seven inches over the past week have also hit nearby Hainen Island in China. The resulting flooding was the worst in 50 years there, and killed one person and forced the evacuation of 55 villages with 213,000 people.

Press
I've been a subscriber for several years to NewScientist magazine, a weekly science news magazine that does a great job staying abreast of all the latest breaking science happenings. This week's October 4 issue features a 4-page section on Extreme Weather that I wrote for them as part of their "Instant Expert" series. If you haven't ever seen the magazine, I enthusiastically recommend taking a look.

If you're a fan of the geek humor xkcd webcomic, see if you can find me on the hilarious map of the "blogosphere" on comic artist Randall Munroe's latest xkcd comic. I like the disparity between my influence in September vs. March, but thought I should have been closer to the "Bay of Flame!" I also appeared in a mouse "rollover" text box in an xkcd comic during the Gulf oil disaster earlier this year.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 612 - 562

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Quoting pottery:

Dont think you are going to get one in the near future...
Hope you get some showers though, sounds unpleasant...
.....actually the wx here is awsome, just dry,butw/highs in the low 80's,little to no humudity its been a early fall treat for our area,however if it continues this dry we are going to have alot of problems as our fire season approaches(winter months)....but yea,we could use rain in any form,as we're already below ave for precip this y!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning Guys! After Otto what's next.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Yep. Even JFV/Weatherstudent was pleasant back then...
I think I would rather see him on here than the vulgar ones who are coming on now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm OTTO: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 33 hours lead
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting BobinTampa:


I usually love the cold weather. but last year, even I was saying 'enough!!!' I think we had well over a week of highs in the 50's if I'm not mistaken.


We kept getting forecast after forecast for a little snow last year here in P'cola. It never materialized here except for one 2 minute period where we had some big flakes mix in right as the rain was ending. Cold w/o snow is just a big waste of cold to me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Upper Level Divergence
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It's not unusual to have couple of fronts push thru to the GOM this time of year. What does seem unusual (to me at least)is to have them quite this strong going so far south while being re-inforced so frequently. Give us this pattern in January and it's gonna be cold in Florida!


I usually love the cold weather. but last year, even I was saying 'enough!!!' I think we had well over a week of highs in the 50's if I'm not mistaken.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's not unusual to have couple of fronts push thru to the GOM this time of year. What does seem unusual (to me at least) is to have them quite this strong going so far south while being re-inforced so frequently. Give us this pattern in January and it's gonna be cold in Florida!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
fire wx warning starting at noon for my area((sarasota)..dam its dryyyyyyyyy!!!,ready for a cat 1or strobg ts w/ lotsa rain!!!


The whole state of Louisiana has been under one for several days now. We're the second driest state in the country right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Real Nice right now, Cot!
Seeing a little dry-spell that always occurs around this time and called 'Petit Careme' by the old French Planters.
Thought we would get some weather from the area east of here, but it looks to be going north.
Enjoying the dry-out, after some months of heavy stuff..


Yes, that's probably useful, heard a few weeks ago when you got drenched.

Here it is surprisingly pleasant as well, particularly for October.

Clear skies, a bit of a stiff breeze, but 18C-19C (high 60s). That's above normal for this time of year, certainly. Looks to be a lovely weekend.
Member Since: Agosto 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

SCZ034-046-081400-
/O.NEW.KILM.CF.S.0002.101008T1000Z-101008T1400Z/
HORRY-GEORGETOWN-
311 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW MOON MAY CAUSE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
ANY FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ONLY A NUISANCE...AFFECTING VERY LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY...TIDAL CREEKS AND
DRAINAGES...AND BEACH PARKING AREAS NEAR BREAKS IN THE DUNES. HIGH
TIDE AT THE BEACHES WILL OCCUR AROUND 815 AM.

$$

TRA
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
648 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

GAZ117-119-139-141-081600-
/O.CON.KCHS.CF.Y.0023.101008T1200Z-101008T1600Z/
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
648 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY.

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST TODAY. TIDE LEVELS NEAR FORT PULASKI
ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN 9.2 AND
9.4 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING UP AND DOWN MUCH OF THE
GEORGIA COAST. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODED ROADWAYS
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE DELAYS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 80 BETWEEN WILMINGTON ISLAND AND TYBEE
ISLAND. THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE AROUND
856 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS AND TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME SALT WATER FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS
NEAR THE COAST. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE THE
NORTHERN GEORGIA COAST WHEN TIDES REACH 9.2 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER AT FORT PULASKI.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON
DIRECTLY AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVED ANY SALT WATER
FLOODING THIS MORNING. YOU CAN ALSO EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR SEND A TWEET TO #WXREPORT.

&&

$$
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting stillwaiting:
fire wx warning starting at noon for my area((sarasota)..dam its dryyyyyyyyy!!!,ready for a cat 1or strobg ts w/ lotsa rain!!!

Dont think you are going to get one in the near future...
Hope you get some showers though, sounds unpleasant...
Member Since: Outubro 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting blsealevel:
3 days out



6 days out

I think this low is content hanging around the Western Caribbean Sea. It will not leave.lol
Member Since: Setembro 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21731
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
fire wx warning starting at noon for my area((sarasota)..dam its dryyyyyyyyy!!!,ready for a cat 1or strobg ts w/ lotsa rain!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


Hey pottery.

I think that's the result of the relationship of the Earth's heliosphere. Solar winds decrease, and radiation increases.

It's still a nascent discipline, though. We still know so little.

How's the weather on the island?

Real Nice right now, Cot!
Seeing a little dry-spell that always occurs around this time and called 'Petit Careme' by the old French Planters.
Thought we would get some weather from the area east of here, but it looks to be going north.
Enjoying the dry-out, after some months of heavy stuff..
Member Since: Outubro 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Lower Level Convergence (9:00Z)
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Good morning, everyone. Been up all night with a sick dog, good thing I have today off for Fair and Rodeo. I'm glad Otto's going out to sea, but we could sure use the rain he would bring if he came here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I'm just an amateur who is wrong a lot. But if I was doing this for a living...as a career...I wouldn't be saying things on here I wasn't sure of..or I would phrase it in a way where I admit, I could be wrong.
Actually, you just don't say anything as it might be construde as an offical forecast from your employing agency.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
Here is an interesting one...

From the BBC yesterday, and CNN today, recent research on the Sun's relationship to weather has shown that recently "visible radiation actually increased as Solar activity was declining..."

Now, this is contrary to current understanding, and will likely turn the whole Sun/Weather debate upside down......


Hey pottery.

I think that's the result of the relationship of the Earth's heliosphere. Solar winds decrease, and radiation increases.

It's still a nascent discipline, though. We still know so little.

How's the weather on the island?
Member Since: Agosto 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Otto looking like a real TC finally.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I think Otto is looking quite a bit better.


As for the wunderground community--I think it is a lot better this past week. Back in 2005 it was all about weather here, and not personal attacks masquerading as 'humor'. And there are some viciously mean blogs here that spawn handles making fun of people all the time. Especially low are the 'humor' bloggers here who make fun of people with mental disabilities. And I do find it a bit rich when handles created 10 weeks ago pontificate on how wunderground used to be. Either they don't know or are trolls evading a permaban.


Yep. Even JFV/Weatherstudent was pleasant back then...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is an interesting one...

From the BBC yesterday, and CNN today, recent research on the Sun's relationship to weather has shown that recently "visible radiation actually increased as Solar activity was declining..."

Now, this is contrary to current understanding, and will likely turn the whole Sun/Weather debate upside down......
Member Since: Outubro 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939


Link



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning. Still extremely overcast in Cayman with intermittent rain. Temp is already 81F with 80% humidity. Winds are 20-25mph pressure @1008 mb.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3 days out



6 days out

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning.
Beautiful morning here.
77F, but humidity at 95% at the Airport...
Does not feel like that at all.
The "Glob" to the east of here looks like it will pass north of us, and fair weather will continue.

The floods in Puerto Rico sound bad....
14" of rain and still coming down.
Member Since: Outubro 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Morning folks.
Shields are still up! Way up!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
579. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
ike they can argue all they want call you a downcaster or whatever nonsense.actually you were a truthcaster who did a hell of a lot better job than these so called weather experts on this blog.I will once again point out the obivous, masters is the only expert on this blog.WEatherguy also but he rarely post anymore.After this season of as the blog turns who can blame him.


I'm just an amateur who is wrong a lot. But if I was doing this for a living...as a career...I wouldn't be saying things on here I wasn't sure of..or I would phrase it in a way where I admit, I could be wrong.
Member Since: Junho 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
ike they can argue all they want call you a downcaster or whatever nonsense.actually you were a truthcaster who did a hell of a lot better job than these so called weather experts on this blog.I will once again point out the obivous, masters is the only expert on this blog.WEatherguy also but he rarely post anymore.After this season of as the blog turns who can blame him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
577. IKE
Quoting WeatherMum:
IKE, I can't drink enough water to keep up with this dry weather. I feel like the shrivled up tree frog I found in the florida room last night. OH and I found the first scorpion of the season in the house last night. Forget squirrels!


It is dry. I don't see any change for at least a week and a half.
.............................................

***MJO focused in the ATL because that's where all of the heat is focused in 2010. If it leaves it will come back.***....

Nope...wrong.

***Pattern change coming in 7-10 days***....

Nope. For the last 3 months.

Member Since: Junho 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
IKE, I can't drink enough water to keep up with this dry weather. I feel like the shrivled up tree frog I found in the florida room last night. OH and I found the first scorpion of the season in the house last night. Forget squirrels!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
575. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
hey ike you these insurance companies have a leg to stand on wanting to raise insurance prices again for wind and hail in the coastal communities.2 years now and absolutely nothing of consequence for the conus.Got to go meetings for my people start early.Also have a feeling thier will be someone come on here and post its not over yet the models predict the mojo to do this or that lol.This high pressure and dry air you posted is forecast to stick around at least for the next two weeks,acording to the forecast ive been reading and Ike have a blessed day.


Models aren't doing much in the western Caribbean...NOGAPS...CMC...latest ECMWF...GFS.

Otto may be it for a while if those models verify.

SE USA looks bone dry the next 7-10 days.

MJO....



Member Since: Junho 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
First visible satellite image of Otto:


I would say Otto will become a hurricane today, note the wheel spoke pattern of upper level outflow which is indicative of a strong tropical cyclone. Also very cold cloud tops shooting up from the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StS.Otto
7Oct 03amGMT - - 23.5n68.2w - - 65mph - - - - 990mb -- NHC.Adv. #4
7Oct 06amGMT - - 23.5n68.2w - - 55knots - - - 990mb -- NHC-ATCF
7Oct 09amGMT - - 23.6n68.2w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#5
7Oct 12pmGMT - - 23.6n68.3w - - 50knots - - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF
TS.Otto
7Oct 03pmGMT - - 23.8n68.0w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#6
7Oct 06pmGMT - - 23.7n67.8w - - 50knots - - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.6n67.9w
7Oct 09pmGMT - - 24.0n67.6w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
8Oct 12amGMT - - 23.9n67.0w - - 55knots - - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.8n67.1w
8Oct 03amGMT - - 24.1n66.6w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv. #8
8Oct 06amGMT - - 24.4n66.1w - - 60knots - - - 989mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09amGMT - - 24.8n65.5w - - 70mph - - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv. #8
50knots=~57.5mph=93.6km/h __ 60mph=~96.6km/h
55knots=~63.3mph=~101.9km/h __ 65mph=~104.6km/h
60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 23.5n68.2w-23.6n68.2w, 23.6n68.2w-23.8n68.0w, 23.8n68.0w-24.0n67.6w, 24.0n67.6w-24.1n66.6w, 24.1n66.6w-24.8n65.5w, bqn, 23.5n68.2w-23.6n68.3w, 23.6n68.3w-23.7n67.8w, 23.7n67.8w-23.9n67.0w, 23.9n67.0w-24.4n66.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 30hours.

The "fish on the line" is due to separate plottings of NHC.ADV. coordinates and of the NHC-ATCF coordinates, superimposed upon one another,

to reflect the apparent disagreement on center positions between those responsible for the ATCF and those responsible for the Advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey ike you these insurance companies have a leg to stand on wanting to raise insurance prices again for wind and hail in the coastal communities.2 years now and absolutely nothing of consequence for the conus.Got to go meetings for my people start early.Also have a feeling thier will be someone come on here and post its not over yet the models predict the mojo to do this or that lol.This high pressure and dry air you posted is forecast to stick around at least for the next two weeks,acording to the forecast ive been reading and Ike have a blessed day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
The ultimate road block....


Wow...great shot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
The ultimate road block....


Definitely. Now if we could just get it to promise to stick around for another seven weeks or so, we really could proclaim the season as over for the CONUS. Of course, the hundreds of wildfires throughout the southeast by then would pose a problem of a different kind...

Personally, I'd rather take the risk of a landfalling storm than a fire-starting, crop-killing, water-rationing drought. Not that either one is much fun...
Member Since: Novembro 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
IMO- Hurricane Otto at 11.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
568. IKE
The ultimate road block....

Member Since: Junho 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looking for YTD data or current rainfall in PR.... this is the only data I've got.... anyone knows any link?? (Snowfall???)


The NWS's local climate pages are excellent. They only ever show info from midnight or so, so anything that's happened since then won't be reflected, but they're still an excellent source:

1) Go to the NWS San Juan page;
2) Select a location;
3) Select a timeframe;
4) Click 'Go'

Everything you want to know.
Member Since: Novembro 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
you guys know a heck of a lot more about weather than i do so what does that round convection south of Cuba look like? what do you all think it could do in the days and weeks to come?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
08/0545 UTC 24.7N 65.6W T4.0/4.0 OTTO -- Atlantic

SAB supports Hurricane status.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
He's looking much better than he did a few hours ago.



Can just see Otto appearing at the bottom of the picture.
Member Since: Agosto 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
...OTTO STRENGTHENING AT IT ACCELERATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 8
Location: 24.8°N 65.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: ENE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am the owl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 612 - 562

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
52 °F
Chuva Fraca