2011 the most expensive year for natural disasters in history
An exceptional accumulation of very severe natural catastrophes, including earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, tornadoes and flooding in the U.S., and flooding in Australia and New Zealand, make 2011 the highest-ever loss year on record, even after the first half-year, said re-insurance giant Munich Re in a press release this week. The $265 billion in economic losses accumulated this year exceeds the previous record year, 2005, which had $220 billion in damage (mostly due to $125 billion in damage from Hurricane Katrina.) Unlike 2005, this year's losses have been headlined by two huge earthquakes--the March 11 quake in Japan ($210 billion) and the February 22 quake in New Zealand ($20 billion.) But with the Northern Hemisphere's hurricane season just beginning, this year's record losses may see a significant boost from hurricanes.
Figure 1. Stunned survivors survey the destruction left by the EF-4 Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado of April. With a price tag estimated at $2 billion, this was the single most expensive tornado of all-time. The record stood only three weeks, being surpassed by the $3 billion in damage from the Joplin Missouri, tornado. The two tornado outbreaks that spawned these tornadoes rank as the globe's 3rd and 5th most destructive natural disasters so far this year. Image from an anonmous posting to Twitter.
Climate change and damage from weather-related disasters
In an interview with MSNBC, Peter Hoppe, who runs Munich Re's Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Center, said that while the damage trend for earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions is fairly stable, damage from severe weather events is on the upswing, even after factoring in increases in population and wealth. He cited natural events such as La Niña and El Niño as factors in some of the damaging weather events, but added that warming temperatures appear to be adding a layer "on top" of that natural variability. In particular, he noted that the floods this January in Australia--that nation's most expensive natural disaster of all time--occurred when ocean temperatures off the coast were at record warm levels. That meant "more evaporation and higher potential for these extreme downpours", and "it can only be explained by global warming."
Figure 2. The five most expensive natural disasters of 2011, as estimated by Munich Re.
However, the there is a lot of controversy on whether economic losses due to weather-related disasters is increasing due to climate change. A 2010 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Netherlands researcher Laurens Bouwer titled, "Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?", looked at 22 disaster loss studies in various parts of the world. All of the studies showed an increase in damages from weather-related disasters in recent decades. The big question is, how much of this increase in damage was due to increases in population, and the fact people are getting wealthier, and thus have more stuff to get damaged? Fourteen of the 22 studies concluded that there were no trends in damage after correcting for increases in wealth and population, while eight of the studies did find upward trends even after such corrections. In all 22 studies, increases in wealth and population were the "most important drivers for growing disaster losses."
Bouwer's review of these 22 disaster loss studies was critiqued this year by Neville Nicholls of the School of Geography and Environmental Science of Montash University, Australia. His analysis, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, notes that Bouwer's study of damage losses did not include the impact of improvements in building codes and weather forecasting. We can expect both factors to have significantly reduced damages due to storms in recent years. Nicholls concludes, "The absence of an upward trend in normalized losses may be due to a balance between reduced vulnerability (from improved weather forecasting and building techniques) and increased frequency or intensity of weather hazards." In his reply to Nicholls' comments, Bouwer states that Nicholls "provides no support that these factors have actually contributed to a substantial reduction in losses over the period of the last decades."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Yup. Cyclones can decide whether to eat other cyclones, move, intensify, weaken, die or resist harsh environment.
Yes. I'm at 2.19 for July. Spread out throughout the first 2 weeks of July.
Normally I just lurk and read, so I'm certain I'm not a weather expert, or even highly knowledgeable, but I know predictions of future events have the potential to be wrong.
Watch the forecast paths of these storms as they change from run to run and that's pretty obvious.
Every day here in S. FL, there's some inaccuracy in the forecast. Weather is highly unpredictable. Again, not a weather expert, but I do know that.
All levi (or anyone -including the NHC- they get 'em wrong too BTW) can do is take the current information and game it out. It is subject to change.
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Typhoon Ma-On in the West Pacific grows stronger and will threaten Japan early next week.
Good Morning Ike............Nice to have you back on the am shift.
698. Vincent4989 7:26 AM EDT on July 15, 2011
On the issue of hurricane intensity forecasting (whether by Levi or the NHC), this specific area of tropical forecasting is actually the "holy grail" and while we are getting closer (some of the models), NHC and all the experts are still working on it and it is a challenging issue; I don't know that anyone (or model) has nailed it down yet and I am not certain that they will in the near future.......Much like Spock, we are still at the point of educated guesses on this issue (see link below)
Until recently, even the most sophisticated dynamical weather prediction models were unable to provide skillful forecasts of changes to a hurricane's intensity. However, the latest upgrades to the GFDL hurricane model have led to significant improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts by better representing the atmospheric and oceanic physical processes critical for intensity prediction. The figure above shows the trend of hurricane intensity forecast errors over the last nine seasons and even indicates that in 2006, for the first time ever, the GFDL hurricane model produced intensity forecasts that had smaller average errors than those from the National Hurricane Center's official forecasts.
Link
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the next seven days
yes it may be quiet but mode runs are in fac forcasting some in like the GFS the last few runs dr m nevere looks at the mode runs be for posting the blog
Add the tail to the right of Ma-on and they look like they're the same size
Dont forget the dying newborn just to the bottom left of Ma-on
Good morning. 75.9 outside my window.
78 here in Tallahassee and 70% chance of rain later today....We had some big boomers yesterday afternoon around 2:30 and will probalby have a repeat today...It's that time of the year....... :)
Hopefully, we'll have something for you to downcast here soon. It's been so slow we actually had a fairly lengthy discussion about Bigfoot on here a few days ago. That's reaching.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 151157
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
757 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011
..HEAT INDICES THIS WEEKEND IN THE LOWER 100 METRO AREAS TO 105
TO 110 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...
THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT A WEAK LOW COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY AND DRIFT WEST INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...THEN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA FOCUSING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME WILL INCREASE THE
POPS A LITTLE BIT BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW THE GUIDANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST AREAS UNTIL THERE IS A PRECEDENT IN
THE MODELS SHOWING THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND.
Hope you have a good one. See you next Monday.
Yes, it is. Dry air not as bad as yesterday however. If it can survive clear SA, it may be a player down the line in the Caribb.
Roasted Tokage with Dissipation Sauce
If it weren't for that ridge messing up Ma-On's north side it would be as big as Tip, and Tip was the biggest TC ever. What a monster storm.
The WPAC does have a propensity for huge storms though, the average Atlantic hurricane is about half the size of the average typhoon.
And remember, A huge Cat5 (like Tip) has much more energy than a tiny Cat5 (like Camile).
But remember:Ma-on's Cat4 stage has only begun.
Also remember: A big cat 3 has stronger surge than a small Cat 5, read the article in Hurricane Resources > Storm Surge "A detailed view of the storm surge:Comparing Katrina to Camille"
Things are starting to look interesting off GA and the "Press-olinas".
and we should be grateful! I'm certain that the people living where those storms hit are.
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