Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 03:26 PM GMT em 17 de Agosto de 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Hey guys.

*Looks at all the craziness going on*

Bye guys!
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good to be back after a year. hey neo and all of you that are great forecasters. looks like the peak will be quite active this year and i look forward to watching the developments along with all of you.

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Waltanater,

That's simply the way Taz types out his comments here. He's been here day in, day out, tropical season, snow season, discussing the weather. No one else seems to have a problem with it.
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hello,

pardon me if I sound strange and obviously Patrick Vaughn knows more than me but with the near certainty that a big High is going to build westward near the eastern seaboard by the 25th or 26th, I have a hard time seeing how this storm could recurve out to sea

I know models change often and the storm has not even formed yet but a recurve? While it might be possible if the High is not strong enough or west enough in the atlantic but still nearly everyone is saying a strong ridge building back in.

Of course we all hope a trough recurves this thing out to sea especially with the potential intensity which is being forecasted.

Personally, I think Rob Lightbown at Crown Weather is really good. of course, he could be wrong to but in his daily tropical discussions, he has never once mentioned the possibility of a trough of low pressure. And this is something any forecaster could see in advance.
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Quoting Waltanater:
Don't worry people...it's just a figure of speech. He couldn't break a bone on me if he tried...not in this lifetime. Trust me.
i did not mean literally i was leaning towards verbally.
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2604. ncstorm
guys, we are going to have a lot people come out of lurking and new handles created because of this potential storm affecting the islands and conus..with that being said, please be kind and considerate when people ask questions..patience is the key here..
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15222
2603. NoLa86
Quoting Tazmanian:



no for per 97L you need too larn too follow the bloger post commets when they post the mode runs here and you no what storm it is for
Insted of doing a drive by comment about how he needs to learn why not show him, and you need to learn how to spell.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
easy Taz, easy Taz dont break a bone on him now.lol
Don't worry people...it's just a figure of speech. He couldn't break a bone on me if he tried...not in this lifetime. Trust me.
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2601. GoWVU
Quoting floodzonenc:
I beg to differ.  Taz's tone was "pissy" and condenscending.  Walt just said what many are thinking.  I don't mind if someone's grammar isn't "all that", but don't go taking a superior tone with others. 



Well said
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Quoting hurricane23:
06z GFS totally discounts terrain effects of Hispaniola and Cuba, which is why i cannot buy into the forecast yet. Looks to be an "Emily" scenario to me.


+1
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old? where were you when andrew moved ashore? we only had one rainband move through here in e. cen fl. but seeing 2 ft waves rolling down the canals everyone knew this one was going to be a bad one down south a couple hundred miles
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Cant we all just get along?
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Quoting Waltanater:
Did you happen to read his post to my original?! Did it ever occur to you that maybe his post was "uncalled for"?? The fact that he has been here since 2006 is irrelevant! If he is so versed in blogging, he should be an expert communicator by now, which he is NOT! Moreover, he should not tell me what to do or how to do it. For someone who cannot write that well he sure thinks he can direct people like that. Both of you should back off!


I really am here to read posts about the tropics. My only problem with what you said is that for the most part most do not know the people on the other end of keyboards. For the most part the truth is those that come on here may be young, disabled, learning disabilities, elderly, handicapped and on and on or jusr someone with bad spelling and grammar. Unless something is really really out of line it would be wrong for me to challenge someones basic intelligence. You did and it pissed me off. I am sorry for reacting the way I did for what you said to Taz. But it still wasn't right. Thats my opinion.
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I don't like these models!!!
school starts next week, I have plans, lots going on,a storm like what the models are showing is going to surely change those plans if it happens. I guess I'll be spending the next few days rooting for SAL and Shear to make those models wrong!
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you young uns need to calm down its only a blogg , it's all just words not like i'm in your face kinda deal k so keep it real and get back on topic .
ps. my grammer suck too and i'm old enough to be your daddy.
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2591. hcubed
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Prime example how just the slightest shift in track can make a world of difference. 00z ECMWF had PG17L moving north of Hispa�ola, and thus allowing the cyclone to intensify to the 957mb depicted below.



Now in the 12z run, PG17L traveled over the mountainous terrain of Hispa�ola, which kept the system an open wave, and thus on a westerly course over Cuba and into the GOM.



LOL, you can bet on it. I'm sure we'll see JFV2016, JFV2017, and JFV2018 today all freaking out.


Freaking out?

If it projects it to a SFL path, he'll be here in all caps, praising the gods for allowing his dreams to come true.

And several will quote his rantings, and taz will announce his poofing, and...

Typical daily postings.

The sane ones amongst us will quietly observe, finish our prep, and wait.
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2590. wn1995
Quoting weatherh98:


when do they go in


Sometime this afternoon, not exactly sure.
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Quoting weatherh98:


taz is very smart
Yes he is...veryyyyyy smart :)
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Quoting wn1995:


Yeah, I had to flag his last post, no need for language in a tropics "chat"

Anyway, VIS will soon reveal better how organized 93L is, and I wouldn't be surprised if HH finds a closed low level circulation when they go in.


when do they go in
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2585. wn1995
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
easy Taz, easy Taz dont break a bone on him now.lol


Yeah, I had to flag his last post, no need for language in a tropics "chat"

Anyway, VIS will soon reveal better how organized 93L is, and I wouldn't be surprised if HH finds a closed low level circulation when they go in.
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2584. GoWVU
This Blog is good for the most part, BUT there are some people on here who think they can say whatever they want. They say some crazy stuff but the first time someone challenges them, they get upset and start making threats....
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Quoting Waltanater:
When the posts are as 'bad' as your posts you tend to 'ignore' them since they tend to have incomplete information and bad grammar! Go back to school and 'larn' some English first.


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
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Quoting islander101010:
this aint grammar school character taz knows its stuff


taz is very smart
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06z GFS totally discounts terrain effects of Hispaniola and Cuba, which is why i cannot buy into the forecast yet. Looks to be an "Emily" scenario to me.
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easy Taz, easy Taz dont break a bone on him now.lol
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Quoting Waltanater:
When the posts are as 'bad' as your posts you tend to 'ignore' them since they tend to have incomplete information and bad grammar! Go back to school and 'larn' some English first.
this aint grammar school character taz knows its stuff
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
are yuo sure? are 100% sure look and look again.


I see it but i assure you no gulf run will happen it will just survivea little longer before death to central am
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guaranteed 93 has a low level circulation when recon arrives or i'll eat yummy chicken tonight
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80%%%%%%
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Quoting Tazmanian:



nop this storm is dead on for CENTRAL
AMERICA
are you sure? are you 100% sure look and look again.
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Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION
ALSO INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Member Since: Maio 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114983
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
good mornining all, i see 93L is still fighting, last few frames indicating a northward jog , could it try to make a run for the GOM ?mmmmmmm.....


I try to focus on the COC or view the SW loop for movement otherwise loops can be misleading. Appears its still moving due west. COC still seems just below 16N as it was late yesterday. Just IMO!
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2567. 34chip
Quoting KeyWestwx:

I'm sure Miami's Fox station, channel 7, already has it a threantening hurricane!!!LOL
Hey KeyWestWx. nice to have another fellow Key Wester on here.
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93 looking impressive. My Bet a TS by early afternoon / eve. Appears to still be moving due west at a good clip. COC still appears to be just below 16N as it was all day yesterday.
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Hmmm. That may not be too far off as far as storms in the GOM the rest of the month. GFS not showing any either. And only a few random blobs into TX. Of course it's just models with the usual caveats.
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when does anyone think the wave in atlantic near 40 degrees west will be labeled an invest??
Member Since: Setembro 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
good mornining all, i see 93L is still fighting, last few frames indicating a northward jog , could it try to make a run for the GOM ?mmmmmmm.....



nop this storm is dead on for CENTRAL
AMERICA
Member Since: Maio 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114983
good mornining all, i see 93L is still fighting, last few frames indicating a northward jog , could it try to make a run for the GOM ?mmmmmmm.....
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Quoting stormhank:
anyone think the system in atlantic will be tagged an invest today??
Yes.
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Quoting whepton3:


It's certainly a ways out... I posted to someone last night that the relative consistency run to run and model to model is definitely an attention grabber.

I have noticed with some amusement that the local mets have been mentioning "a CATL tropical wave with the potential to be a TD or TS near Puerto Rico next week,"

Seems they're planting the flag so that if the models pan out, they can say they've been telling you about it for a week.

Groundwork for the inevitable proof of performance promos to follow the storm.

I'm sure Miami's Fox station, channel 7, already has it a threantening hurricane!!!LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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