Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.
The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.
Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.
According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.
Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.
Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.
93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.
Jeff Masters
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Business is slow here this summer.
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
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NP, thanks for the acknowledgment.
That is not my point. You said the Euro is insisting on not developing this when it has been swinging back and forth on development from run to run.
I am more concerened about the pattern the Euro is showing which would put the U.S. (Florida and Gulf) in danger
looks are so deceiving, actually looks like it could be minimal hurricane
That ridge on the 12Z is a B*&#*.! Looking beyond the models, the now positive NAO backs it up.
how do you know that stop putting word in my mouth
Thanks
Thanks
Link
Euro 12z:
Uh oh, this could get interesting.
The overall pattern (not necessarily the specifics mind you) still remind me of the setup for Ike (and probably Gustav to an extent as well). That is, a weakness in the ridge gives the storm a chance to start moving more north, or northwest, then the weakness closes off and the storm gets pushed back generally westwards until it finds another opening to go north.
Will be interesting to see how the 12Z UKM does.
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1013mb (Surface) 28.4C (83.1F) 24.9C (76.8F)
948mb 23.2C (73.8F) 22.2C (72.0F)
885mb 19.4C (66.9F) 16.7C (62.1F)
850mb 18.6C (65.5F) Approximately 9C (48F)
797mb 16.4C (61.5F) Approximately 0C (32F)
755mb 13.8C (56.8F) Approximately 4C (39F)
746mb 13.6C (56.5F) Approximately -3C (27F)
730mb 12.6C (54.7F) Approximately -3C (27F)
697mb 9.4C (48.9F) Approximately 2C (36F)
675mb 7.4C (45.3F) Approximately -2C (28F)
669mb 7.0C (44.6F) Approximately 1C (34F)
638mb 4.8C (40.6F) Approximately -2C (28F)
625mb 4.0C (39.2F) Approximately -9C (16F)
615mb 3.2C (37.8F) Approximately -8C (18F)
597mb 2.2C (36.0F) Approximately -16C (3F)
590mb 1.4C (34.5F) -3.5C (25.7F)
A few HDOBS at flight level
Time: 17:25:00Z
Coordinates: 14.8333N 74.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.2 mb (~ 28.86 inHg)
Air Temp: 23.0C (~ 73.4F)
Dew Pt: -8.1C (~ 17.4F)
Time: 17:49:30Z
Coordinates: 13.85N 74.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.3 mb (~ 28.86 inHg)
Air Temp: 23.7C (~ 74.7F)
Dew Pt: -6.8C (~ 19.8F)
Time: 18:41:00Z
Coordinates: 14.8167N 76.5W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.8 mb (~ 28.84 inHg)
Air Temp: 23.9C (~ 75.0F)
Dew Pt: -5.0C (~ 23.0F)
I can't stop laughing....
12Z builds in much stronger ridging which likely causes the cyclone to move over the islands, remain weak and on a more westward course. However, and again, not too much different track wise with the exception of the end result.
I don't understand how the Euro goes from one run showing the Subtropical Ridge hanging off the East Coast, to the ridge extending into the Central Plains, how many times has it done that already?
To whom are you referring?
It's gonna cost a heckuva lot more to deal with the issue later than the relative pittance it would cost to avoid it now.
it basically show two different scenarios with the islands and went with the west option..LOL..interesting week ahead..
can you tell me please if this model was updated 8pm last night? i think that is when it happens...trying to see how many days in a row it is calling for this, TIA
Link
Coordinates: 15.7333N 76.0167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.2 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,199 meters (~ 10,495 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.9 mb (~ 29.88 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 48° at 15 knots (From the NE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp: 8.6°C (~ 47.5°F)
Dew Pt: -20.1°C (~ -4.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Altitude ( on the way home already?
likey more dry weather
Viewing: 501 - 551
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