Irene continues to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 08:46 PM GMT em 26 de Agosto de 2011

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Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene continues to weaken. A 1:32 pm EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall is still gone, and the central pressure had risen to 951 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate southwesterly wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene have moved ashore over North Carolina. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 3 pm EDT, with significant wave heights of 25 feet.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Friday August 26, when Irene was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The eyewall collapsed several hours before this image was taken, and no eye is apparent. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.


Figure 2. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 3:30 pm EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Forecast for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday. Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 2) and Irene's continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75 - 85 mph on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55 - 75 mph winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur. By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65 - 75 mph range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.

Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene.


Figure 3. Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 20 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days.  The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. The exceedance heights depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 4. Overall chance that storm surges will be greater than 3 feet above normal tide levels during the next 3 days.  The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory.  Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will take your questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GatorWX:


Thanks for the response. The GFDL is the only model hinting this scenario, and it certainly appears plausible. A brief ridge could push her a bit more westward before the next trough pulls her away again as she'll be much further north to really feel the tug.
I take it NYC is still in play here for the center to pass right over it?
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Quoting OceanMoan:



I did go to Folly today, waves were awesome!


what time? it was closed some of the day with the power pole and lines in the road, we were DT at high tide...wasnt going near folly at that time...plus, they pulled a body from the water this evening too over there...didn't want to get in all that
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now 3 tornado warnings out for eastern NC...gosh this is gonna keep me awake. Please pray for eastern NC
Link
to the Wilmington radar from NWS
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1549. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting padirescu:
Question for those in the know. Any idea what the height above mean sea level is for the end of the Topsail Island pier? I'm trying to gauge the wave heights on the webcam but obviously I have a limited perspective not knowing this level of detail.


Here's a gage close to there. Tide is going out ..looks to be ~3ft above MSL at this moment.
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I'm paying close attention to the kinds of surface winds the SMFR instrument is finding in the western side of Irene, since this side is going to be striking the more populated areas of eastern NC. Right now they are between 60-65 mph out to 70 miles from the center. Remember that the frictional effects of those winds traveling over land will allow for higher winds along the coastline and just inland than over the ocean...so areas such as Jacksonville, New Bern and Morehead City can expect to receive maximum winds about 10% higher than those found (around 70-75 mph).
Member Since: Setembro 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
1547. P451
Quoting Levi32:


She won't be weakening that rapidly, and folks up there should be ready for 80mph gusts.


We are. Forecasts still call for high winds.

NYC:
NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO 75
MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP
TO 80 MPH.

Westchester County:
NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO 75
MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH.

Coastal NJ Counties:
NORTH WINDS 55 TO
75 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 100 MPH...BECOMING WEST AND...DIMINISHING
TO 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
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Quoting killdevilmax:
Soon as that batch of dry air is expelled she's going to pop.


Very unlikely there will be any "significant" strengthening..... or weakening for that matter...... I believe Irene will maintain her current approx strength into Long Island.......
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I would suppose many are not posting due to the large number of trolls that now frequent the sight...
Maybe the 1/5 of the USA threatened by Irene contains the majority of the WU Trolls and they are hunkered down.
Just Kidding... but it is nice to see it "quiet". I have been avoiding the blogs here for months..... but put a Cane in the Atlantic or GOM & I'm gonna lurk and/or post. Can't help it...
Quoting chicagowatcher:
I know, blog is alot slower than I'd imagine with a huge storm impacting US coastlines.
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1544. Levi32
Quoting GatorWX:
Levi,

What do you think of what the gfdl is hinting in that the current trough wont be strong enough to keep her on her current track all the way up the coast and pull away (trough), allowing her to bend back to the left a bit?


The GFDL has been severely left-biased throughout Irene's lifetime and has yet to be right. The trough coming in shouldn't allow a movement too deep into the northeast U.S., and a movement east of north should prevail as Irene moves up the coast.
Member Since: Novembro 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Gonna head out for now. I leave you with the blog I just wrote.

Everyone in Irene's path, please stay safe!
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Quoting Unfriendly:
anyone know how high approximately that pier at topsail is above mean sea level?


Ok, that was kind of weird. Beat me to the punch by one comment. :-)
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Quoting floodzonenc:


That's what she said?
no The right thing to say here, about this meteorologist is "that's what he said"
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1540. GatorWX
Quoting KoritheMan:


I personally think the latter.


Thanks for the response. The GFDL is the only model hinting this scenario, and it certainly appears plausible. A brief ridge could push her a bit more westward before the next trough pulls her away again as she'll be much further north to really feel the tug.
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Wow looking even better on Dvorak in the new image



Recon should have an interesting next pass.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


•Pepsi
•Mouthwash
•Lemon Juice
•Anti-dandruff shampoo
•Febreeze
•Beer
and last...eucalyptus oil after a bath with the dandruff shampoo
Ooh, nice list! Hopefully Topstorm's got some of those things on hand!

Good pictures, too, Tigger!
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Quoting GatorWX:
Levi,

What do you think of what the gfdl is hinting in that the current trough wont be strong enough to keep her on her current track all the way up the coast and pull away (trough), allowing her to bend back to the left a bit?


I should have clarified. I do not think that the actual track is going to see any significant leftward shifts. I simply meant that in the wake of the current trough moving through the Ohio Valley, there may be a brief period of ridging so that she doesn't bend too far east of the projected track. My bad.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


our biggest problems were super high tides and some power outages...i did NOT venture to Folly Beach where Press was...last time it flooded there from some rain it was SUPER deep...wasn't taking the chance with little one...i was nervous enuf going down town...water sits on roads some but these tides were higher than my hubby even remembers and he is from here and use to LIVE down town...



I did go to Folly today, waves were awesome!
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Post hurricane hint:
Place wet or water damaged books, papers, art and textiles in the freezer to gently freeze dry the materials and prevent mold. If the item is valuable, it can be sent later to professional restorers but at least it will keep stable in the meantime.

Some libraries and museums have been known to order freezer trucks or boats (Venice, Italy) to save their collections.

Link
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Quoting Levi32:


I don't think we'll see anymore left bending. She should pass up just east of Jersey, as the latest 11pm forecast track indicates.



Exactly........ which puts a Cat1 right into Long Island it appears.....
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1533. P451
Quoting Orcasystems:
BTW, "If I was a betting man" I wouldn't rule out a Miss




With the way this storm has bounced around I wouldn't rule out anything. Including her bouncing back more northerly for a spell again overnight.

The eastward jog seems to be due to the core organizing more and tightening up some. Seems like her eye which has popped out from time to time jumped east in just a couple of frames. Quite a wobble. Also she has become oblong with her pressure gradient sagging towards the east south east. That is also having a hand in the center jumping east.

Always said we wouldn't know what to expect up north until Saturday morning when Irene began to interact with and cross the outer banks.

With the ridge expected to build back in I don't expect her to be heading out to sea and missing the NJ/NY area like so many before her.

We'll know much more about that in the morning.
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Things are picking up here in Elizabeth City, NC. Been raining for a while now, but the wind is really starting to kick in.
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1530. Levi32
Quoting P451:


Still looking to be a 75mph hurricane when landfalling on Long Island.



She won't be weakening that rapidly, and folks up there should be ready for 80mph gusts.
Member Since: Novembro 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1529. GatorWX
Levi,

What do you think of what the gfdl is hinting in that the current trough wont be strong enough to keep her on her current track all the way up the coast and pull away (trough), allowing her to bend back to the left a bit?
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Quoting chicagowatcher:
I know, blog is alot slower than I'd imagine with a huge storm impacting US coastlines.


a lot of the people that were on here tho are already going thru the storm, some are evacing...without power, etc
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1527. zawxdsk
Irene is taking the NAM/WRF path from what it looks like.

Always fun to watch the Simulated Reflectivity. It gives you a better feel for the storm than a wind field.

Member Since: Agosto 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
Interesting that it stays at 100mph...pressure steady as well. What a storm...
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Personally, I think too many people are focusing on the wobbles. They will be critical for North Carolina, certainly, but again, she's NOT recurving. Erratic wobbles are to be expected for hurricanes of Irene's intensity.

She is east of the track, but should soon stabilize.
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Quoting GatorWX:
Levi, Pat, whomever knows,

Do you think this trough will keep her on a more easterly heading as is evident on satellite and hh fixes or do you suppose she could bend back left as the current trough moves out?


I would think it would depend on the ridge behind the trof
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Quoting Levi32:


I don't think we'll see anymore left bending. She should pass up just east of Jersey, as the latest 11pm forecast track indicates.



Hopefully we see more RIGHT bending.
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
Evening,
Popping in - hope everyone stays safe & stays alert. It ain't over until it's over...

Stay safe & stay alert.

Geez, I scrolled back maybe 100 posts & didn't see anyone I know. Weird... Where's the originals?
I know, blog is alot slower than I'd imagine with a huge storm impacting US coastlines.
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1521. Levi32
Member Since: Novembro 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1520. P451
Quoting Levi32:
000


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 32.6N 76.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 43.8N 71.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 52.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z 56.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z 57.5N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


Still looking to be a 75mph hurricane when landfalling on Long Island.

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Question for those in the know. Any idea what the height above mean sea level is for the end of the Topsail Island pier? I'm trying to gauge the wave heights on the webcam but obviously I have a limited perspective not knowing this level of detail.
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anyone know how high approximately that pier at topsail is above mean sea level?
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BTW, "If I was a betting man" I wouldn't rule out a Miss


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1516. hahaguy
I think Irene is trying to spell something out.
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1515. Levi32
Quoting GatorWX:
Levi, Pat, whomever knows,

Do you think this trough will keep her on a more easterly heading as is evident on satellite and hh fixes or do you suppose she could bend back left as the current trough moves out?


I don't think we'll see anymore left bending. She should pass up just east of Jersey, as the latest 11pm forecast track indicates.

Member Since: Novembro 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1514. GatorWX
Quoting KoritheMan:


I personally think the latter.


Which the gfdl is certainly hinting at. This trough just doesn't look like it's going to do the trick considering her speed. I said earlier, she really appears to have been crawling the past couple hours. I think this is probably because she is feeling more of the ridge and less of the trough, which also explains her more easterly heading.
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Evening,
Popping in - hope everyone stays safe & stays alert. It ain't over until it's over...

Stay safe & stay alert.

Geez, I scrolled back maybe 100 posts & didn't see anyone I know. Weird... Where's the originals?
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1512. P451
Quoting K8eCane:

 looks like the eye is falling apart to me!


I would not use radar imagery from that distance to analyze the core structure of a storm.


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TWC just said HC is keeping Irene at cat one hitting NY.
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3159


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Quoting tiggeriffic:


•Pepsi
•Mouthwash
•Lemon Juice
•Anti-dandruff shampoo
•Febreeze
•Beer
and last...eucalyptus oil after a bath with the dandruff shampoo


V8 juice is some skunk stink removing magic
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Another hour or so has gone by and Irene is still E of forecast. This is good news for many.

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1507. Levi32
000
WTNT44 KNHC 270258
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HAVE FOUND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 950-951 MB AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 99 KT TO 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF IRENE. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH
LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR TYPICALLY
YIELDS. THIS DISPARITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA
FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY HAVE BEEN INDICATING VIGOROUS
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE...WITH
DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT OR GREATER AT ALTITUDE ABOVE 15000
FEET. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
IRENE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT.

RADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE IRENE HAS MADE THE LONG-FORECAST TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NOW AND IS MOVING AT 020/12 KT. IRENE IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE
CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
TRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS.

IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C UNTIL
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR ONLY
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HOWEVER...LAND INTERACTION...
COOLER WATER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF
IRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS
OVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 32.6N 76.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 43.8N 71.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 52.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z 56.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z 57.5N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Novembro 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1506. Levi32
000
WTNT34 KNHC 270257
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LASHING THE CAROLINA COAST...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 76.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WEATHERFLOW AUTOMATED
STATION REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...AND A GUST
TO 64 MPH...104 KM/H AT THE FORT MACON STATE PARK NEAR ATLANTIC
BEACH NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
NEW YORK...AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 AM EDT AND 300 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Novembro 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1505. zawxdsk
Gusts to 55kts at Morehead City.

Member Since: Agosto 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
Quoting oceanbug:
@TStormSC: Vinegar works on skunk smell, too. I've set it out in bowls when skunks go off outside my window - it takes a while but it works. Not sure how it would be for dogs, though. :-( Acidic, so not good for their skin.

Best of luck!


•Pepsi
•Mouthwash
•Lemon Juice
•Anti-dandruff shampoo
•Febreeze
•Beer
and last...eucalyptus oil after a bath with the dandruff shampoo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1503. bwat
Darn it! After all this eastern movement they still have her comming over the Albemarle. They must see something I don't. Headed to bed. Praying the eastern movement continues. Nite all.
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 353
Quoting GatorWX:
Levi, Pat, whomever knows,

Do you think this trough will keep her on a more easterly heading as is evident on satellite and hh fixes or do you suppose she could bend back left as the current trough moves out?


I personally think the latter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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