Rina pulls its punch; Thai floods worsen; Texas gets snow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:34 PM GMT em 28 de Outubro de 2011

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Tropical Storm Rina is being ripped apart by strong upper-level southerly winds creating 30 knots of wind shear over the storm. Visible satellite loops show that the low-level circulation of Rina is just a naked swirl over Cancun, on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The shear has torn away Rina's heavy thunderstorms so that they lie about 200 miles to the northeast of the center. Cancun radar shows almost no rain affecting the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding the waters, even though the center of the storm is directly over Cancun. Last night, Rina brought wind gusts of up to 41 mph to Cancun and 43 mph at Cozumel, where 8.20" of rain fell yesterday. Damage from Rina to Cozumel and Cancun should be very minor, and I expect the hotels there will be open for business today.

Rina will continue to be sheared apart today, with the low level center expected to drift slowly southwards along the Yucatan coast. Long range radar out of Key West shows that moisture streaming to the northeast from Rina is bringing rain to the Southwest coast of Florida. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches are likely over the Florida Keys and South Florida through Sunday due to moisture from Rina. Wind shear should be able to destroy the circulation of Rina by Saturday.


Figure 1. What tropical storm? It's hard to tell a tropical storm with 45 mph winds was centered over this beach in Cancun, Mexico this morning. Rina's heavy rains and strong wind were several hundred miles to the northeast of Cancun this morning, thanks to strong upper-level winds that sheared the storm apart.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rina showing the center of circulation over the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles to the northeast of the center.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A broad region of low pressure in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and Honduras is drifting slowly northwest at less than 5 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity is disorganized and relatively modest, and NHC is giving the region a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Heavy rains from the disturbance will affect Honduras, the Cayman Islands, and Nicaragua Friday through Sunday. None of the reliable computer models are showing development of a new tropical depression in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though we will continue to see disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean that could generate something.

Thailand's Great Flood likely to peak this weekend
The most damaging natural disaster in Thailand history is growing more serious, as the flood waters besieging the capital of Bangkok continue to overwhelm defenses and inundate the city. Heavy rains during September and October have led to extreme flooding that has killed 373 people and caused that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history, with a cost now estimated at $6 billion. Thailand's previous most expensive disaster was the $1.3 billion price tag of the November 27, 1993 flood, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Floodwaters have swamped fields and cities in a third of Thailand's provinces, affected 9 million people, and damaged approximately 10% of the nation's rice crop. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice, so the disaster may put further upward pressure on world food prices, which are already at the highest levels since the late 1970s. The highest tide of the month occurs this weekend at 8:07 am ICT in the capital of Bangkok, and the additional pressure that incoming salt water puts on the flood walls protecting the city is a major concern. Fortunately, the monsoon has been quiet this week over Southeast Asia, and the latest GFS model precipitation forecast show little additional rain over the country in the coming week. Heavy monsoon rains are common in Thailand and Southeast Asia during La Niña events, and we currently have a weak La Niña event occurring. Ocean temperatures in the waters surrounding Thailand during September and October have been approximately 0.3°C above average, which has increased rainfall amounts by putting more water vapor into the air. The remains of Tropical Storm Haitang and Typhoon Nesat also brought heavy rains in late September which contributed to the flooding.


Figure 3. Top ten most expensive natural disasters in Thailand since 1900, as tabulated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This month's disaster (number one on the table above) is not yet in the CRED data base.

Texas gets its first snow of the season
The first snow of the season blanketed parts of the western and central Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles yesterday. Officially, Amarillo, TX picked up 3.1" of snow, which was a record for the date (old record: 2.4" on Oct. 27, 1911.) Areas 6 miles southwest of Amarillo got up to five inches of snow. Amarillo's heaviest October snow on record was 9.0" on Oct.21 - 22, 1906. The earliest measurable snowfall at Amarillo is 0.3" on Sept. 29, 1984. Yesterday's snow was quite a contrast from Tuesday's weather, when the high hit 86°F in Amarillo! Normally Texas would grumble about getting snow so early in the year, but yesterday's 1.23" of precipitation in Amarillo was over 25% of their precipitation for the entire year. Amarillo has now had 4.84" of precipitation this year, which is almost 14" below normal. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the latest on the Texas drought in his latest post. He noted that Pecos, TX had received a paltry .48" so far this year, and that the driest calendar year in Texas records was 1.64" at Presidio in 1956. Well, Pecos got another 0.02" yesterday to bring their yearly total to 0.50", so that city is still on track to record the lowest rainfall of any city in Texas history.

My next post may not be until Sunday or Monday, depending upon the weather.

Jeff Masters

Amarillo snow! (oklahomagirl1)
Early Amarillo,Tx. snow.
Amarillo snow!
Raining in Bangkok (Bangkrood)
Water on the ground and on the sky comimg to Bangkok!!
Raining in Bangkok
Not any Race today (Faasai)
Bangkok Speedway on Khlong 5 flooded,more than 50cm
Not any Race today

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Where do you live?


NE NJ. Forecast has gone from nothing, to 1-3, to
4-6 just so far today. :/

And now you got that bonus moisture heading towards Florida. This could be a crazy Bastardi prophecy that even goes beyond his wildest dreams, especially considering it's wet heavy crap.
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Quoting njdevil:


Uh, no. I hate to break it to you, but Rina got robbed today. Someone took off with its rain and took it to Florida...
nah not too bad in florida, at best a heavy drizzle now and then, but all in all whatever rain falls in central florida, we need it, forecast calls for a dry winter coming, so whatever we get we are thankful, watch the back, that snow shoveling can get to you, nj, ny maybe even down to atlanta? gee
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Could the reminants of rina be trouble for the east coast later down the line, are the models picking anything up? tia

ps love the blog read everyday!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
GFS in 42hrs.


GFS in 102hrs.

Note: Nicaragua system
First One: Big Storm. no.2: ehhhh....
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Quoting njdevil:
Of course the downshot to Rina's robbery is that if that rain can haul ass through Florida, it can join forces with the Nor'easter and give even more snow.

lol.

We've gone from nothing to 4-6. I'll be out of here before then, thankfully, but that cleanup costs money.
Where do you live?
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wow we just had some strong winds that it flung my front door open and my back french door and rip one of the french door off how are the rest of you guys here in Cayman
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Of course the downshot to Rina's robbery is that if that rain can haul ass through Florida, it can join forces with the Nor'easter and give even more snow.

lol.

We've gone from nothing to 4-6. I'll be out of here before then, thankfully, but that cleanup costs money.
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151. 996tt
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


At least the streets will be cleaner after they dry off. I would go ahead and dump some bleach.


Haha, first thing I thought was oh man, those poor people wading around in the water are going to get really sick. That water has got to be nasty and on par with the pollution in the flood waters in New Orleans after the levees broke. This is comparable to the entire city and metro areas Los Angles being flooded under 5 feet of water.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I thought most folks who lived on the Islands tended to be "laid back" for want of a better term. We don't read from Bahamians about storms going WEST all year or fretting over tropical RAIN. We got a member in the Virgin Islands who's busy windsurfing and enjoying himself when storms are forecast to hit him in 2 days. Only some of you in the Caymans, for whatever reason, seem a little jumpy. .
.
I wonder why?
Just something I've observed over the years.


Hey Cosmic, How are you? I think its PTSD from Ivan, That was one hell of a hurricane to experience!
Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8123
Their will be snow for my area so early?.I was expecting to get the first trace in early December.But October?.No wayyy.I havn't seen a snow this early in December since 1979.Ah yes I remember that day.I was nine at the time.I also remember that winter being quite bad for my area.
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148. DDR
From the satellite,looks like Grand Cayman is getting pounded with rain?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I thought most folks who lived on the Islands tended to be "laid back" for want of a better term. We don't read from Bahamians about storms going WEST all year or fretting over tropical RAIN. We got a member in the Virgin Islands who's busy windsurfing and enjoying himself when storms are forecast to hit him in 2 days. Only some of you in the Caymans, for whatever reason, seem a little jumpy. .
.
I wonder why?
Just something I've observed over the years.


A four letter word I V A N .
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys rina's coc is now moving E and also according to the shear map rina is also running into lesser shear before was in 30+kt shear now going into 20+kt shear and kinda droping (not by much but still droping) and if this continues there is that possiblity of rina redeveloping


Rina's central pressure was 29.65 at 1000 EDT this morning. The pressure at my house in central Alabama is 29.89 right now. The pressure at Miami is 29.86 now. The pressure at Havana, Cuba is 29.80 now. Where is an area of lower pressure that would cause Rina to redevelop? Yes, there's a lot of blow off rain and clouds in south Florida, but you still need lower pressure somewhere for a tropical storm to form. Rina is barely a an open wave low and I expect her to become a remnant low by the 4:00 update. Time to give up on Rina and look further afield.

P.S. I've still got that crow ready. :)
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Quoting jrweatherman:
The ignore button is useless.

Just now figuring that out? ;)
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I thought most folks who lived on the Islands tended to be "laid back" for want of a better term. We don't read from Bahamians about storms going WEST all year or fretting over tropical RAIN. We got a member in the Virgin Islands who's busy windsurfing and enjoying himself when storms are forecast to hit him in 2 days. Only some of you in the Caymans, for whatever reason, seem a little jumpy. .
.
I wonder why?
Just something I've observed over the years.

Good observation, lol.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys rina's coc is now moving E and also according to the shear map rina is also running into lesser shear before was in 30+kt shear now going into 20+kt shear and kinda droping (not by much but still droping) and if this continues there is that possiblity of rina redeveloping

She's going to put the brakes on and chuck a ui and head back to Mexico.
Link
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I thought most folks who lived on the Islands tended to be "laid back" for want of a better term. We don't read from Bahamians about storms going WEST all year or fretting over tropical RAIN. We got a member in the Virgin Islands who's busy windsurfing and enjoying himself when storms are forecast to hit him in 2 days. Only some of you in the Caymans, for whatever reason, seem a little jumpy. .
.
I wonder why?
Just something I've observed over the years.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes but I hate to break it to you but Rina may get a great loan from the bank to its south-southeast and if rina like that loan she will take it


Yes, it's a tropical depression above 1000mb and it's going to come back from the dead. Can we be a tad realistic here? It's a naked swirl and it's going to be blown into oblivion.... it had all of its convection hauled away for crisscakes.
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Quoting njdevil:


Uh, no. I hate to break it to you, but Rina got robbed today. Someone took off with its rain and took it to Florida...

yes but I hate to break it to you but Rina may get a great loan from the bank to its south-southeast and if rina like that loan she will take it
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GFS in 42hrs.


GFS in 102hrs.

Note: Nicaragua system
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys rina's coc is now moving E and also according to the shear map rina is also running into lesser shear before was in 30+kt shear now going into 20+kt shear and kinda droping (not by much but still droping) and if this continues there is that possiblity of rina redeveloping


Uh, no. I hate to break it to you, but Rina got robbed today. Someone took off with its rain and took it to Florida...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake near Peru.

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35mph winds and heavy rain in Savannah grand cayman right now.....like we need more rain looks like its going to keep coming though
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys rina's coc is now moving E and also according to the shear map rina is also running into lesser shear before was in 30+kt shear now going into 20+kt shear and kinda droping (not by much but still droping) and if this continues there is that possiblity of rina redeveloping

A slightly possibility, you should add.
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131. 996tt
Quoting DJMedik91:


The $6 billion is in US dollars. It would be 160 billion in Thai Baht.


Yeah, I get the conversion. Everything in Thailand is much cheaper at about the same ratio as the dollar conversion. A $ 10,000 house in Thailand would be about $ 300,000 here so damage of $ 6,000,000 would be comparable to about $ 190 to $ 200 billion here. Difficult to calculate, but easy to discount and so not that big of a disaster if hear only $ 6 Billion dollars when reality it could be Ine if the largest 2 or 3 natural disasters ever with proper currency conversion.
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hey guys rina's coc is now moving E and also according to the shear map rina is also running into lesser shear before was in 30+kt shear now going into 20+kt shear and kinda droping (not by much but still droping) and if this continues there is that possiblity of rina redeveloping
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake near Peru.

Yup.
Aren't they still recovering from the quake in 07 there?
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Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake near Peru.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


From where are those numbers? I always get the latest ACE numbers from Wiki.

Here
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JUST NOW:
Magnitude 6.9 - NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
Not much info YET though because it just happened, so the damage and injury/death toll is unknown.
For more info:
Link
Still pretty strong though.
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Quoting MTWX:

Nah.. Rina is done, but the new low level cirulation may pick up whats left of her convection and may reach depression status before running over south florida IMO.
Weren't speaking about Rina though. Talking about all the convection in the western Caribbean.
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
Quoting AussieStorm:


Rina = 9.2075
North Atlantic = 120.043


From where are those numbers? I always get the latest ACE numbers from Wiki.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Looking good for about 6 inches of snow here in Northern Virginia tomorrow with this early season storm!!


akk! Don't remind me. We are have 6-8 inches predicted in the eastern WV panhandle... way too early for winter.
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It looks like the last advisory of TD Rina will be at 4 PM CDT.

AL, 18, 2011102818, , BEST, 0, 218N, 864W, 25, 1007, LO
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Link

LLC of Rina is now moving ESE
Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8123
Key West long range radar. When that moisture coming up from Cuba meets up with the moisture from the GOM, there's going to be some heavy rain over S. Fl.
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Vorticity has dimished quite a bit

Direction of wind suggest a circulation



Pressures are not that high, lower than when Rina was first developing



Shear isn't that bad!

Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8123
Quoting wxmod:
Snow in Texas after incredible drought? But the Colorado River water users are getting snow in their Rocky Mountains. Lots of seeded contrails all over the skies of northern CA and OR. Geoengineering. WXmod. Climate change remediation. Solar resource management. The water wars have begun.



Lol, climate change remediation my butt!! This has to be one of the most hilarious statements here today. You need to call George Noory on Coast to Coast to make arguments like this. Truth is that nature is just doing what it does best. Proving Al Gore and his followers wrong one more time. But heck what he cares anyway, he has made millions of this AGW scam.
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Well, we were very close to Rina, at Playa del Carmen, across from Cozumel. We had a VERY calm day and only after 8pm (local time) we started to have a litle bit of wind and rain and later on we could hear the thunders. It wasn't that bad, happy that it came as a tropical storm and not a cat 2 or 3. Now, it looks like nothing happened.... sun is out and no damages... just a few branches and electricity is back so feel free to visit us at Playa del Carmen, Cancún and Cozumel :-)
You can hardly tell Rina was here and we'll receive you with our arms open.
Have a nice weekend all ;-)
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Big Picture, rainy night for Fl.
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Boy, I wish some of those blobs of precipitation would head our way in Alabama. We aren't getting squat, and it looks like the junk behind the cold front will give us a few hundreths if we're lucky.
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Quoting wxmod:
Snow in Texas after incredible drought? But the Colorado River water users are getting snow in their Rocky Mountains. Lots of seeded contrails all over the skies of northern CA and OR. Geoengineering. WXmod. Climate change remediation. Solar resource management. The water wars have begun.


Seeded contrails? Weather modification? Do you have some links that shows this is happening?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Looking good for about 6 inches of snow here in Northern Virginia tomorrow with this early season storm!!


This dogone global warming is slowly killing us. Lord have mercy!!
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Looking good for about 6 inches of snow here in Northern Virginia tomorrow with this early season storm!!
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


At least the streets will be cleaner after they dry off. I would go ahead and dump some bleach.


Throw in some Oxiclean, and then some Shamwow's to soak it all up.

Problem fixed!
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110. MTWX
Quoting BackwoodsTN:
103:

It doesn't look like much. It will dissipate. It's a big mess, no circulation, not going anywhere, it will die out, it won't affect the CONUS. Shear is too high, waters are too cold. The upper anti-cyclonic baroclinic tropospheric outflow is bad. The MJO is negative. LOL (Yeah, CI, I've noticed it.)

Wait Wait Wait. You mean to tell me WoodyFL that Rina isn't going to go for one last final horrah for us. I mean let's be patient, cuz one little single burst of convection just very well might mean she is intensifying. Let's watch even single infrared frame to see if she can fire up something, eh? Then we'll work on getting the MLC back inline with the LLC. Whadda say?

Nah.. Rina is done, but the new low level cirulation may pick up whats left of her convection and may reach depression status before running over south florida IMO.
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Quoting DJMedik91:


The $6 billion is in US dollars. It would be 160 billion in Thai Baht.


At least the streets will be cleaner after they dry off. I would go ahead and dump some bleach.
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Quoting kwgirl:
A little rain NEVER stopped us!


And if a Tropical Storm was heading for Key West it would have really been "Party Time."
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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