Tropical Storm Rina is being ripped apart by strong upper-level southerly winds creating 30 knots of wind shear over the storm. Visible satellite loops show that the low-level circulation of Rina is just a naked swirl over Cancun, on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The shear has torn away Rina's heavy thunderstorms so that they lie about 200 miles to the northeast of the center. Cancun radar shows almost no rain affecting the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding the waters, even though the center of the storm is directly over Cancun. Last night, Rina brought wind gusts of up to 41 mph to Cancun and 43 mph at Cozumel, where 8.20" of rain fell yesterday. Damage from Rina to Cozumel and Cancun should be very minor, and I expect the hotels there will be open for business today.
Rina will continue to be sheared apart today, with the low level center expected to drift slowly southwards along the Yucatan coast. Long range radar out of Key West shows that moisture streaming to the northeast from Rina is bringing rain to the Southwest coast of Florida. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches are likely over the Florida Keys and South Florida through Sunday due to moisture from Rina. Wind shear should be able to destroy the circulation of Rina by Saturday.
Figure 1. What tropical storm? It's hard to tell a tropical storm with 45 mph winds was centered over this beach in Cancun, Mexico this morning. Rina's heavy rains and strong wind were several hundred miles to the northeast of Cancun this morning, thanks to strong upper-level winds that sheared the storm apart.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rina showing the center of circulation over the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles to the northeast of the center.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A broad region of low pressure in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and Honduras is drifting slowly northwest at less than 5 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity is disorganized and relatively modest, and NHC is giving the region a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Heavy rains from the disturbance will affect Honduras, the Cayman Islands, and Nicaragua Friday through Sunday. None of the reliable computer models are showing development of a new tropical depression in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though we will continue to see disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean that could generate something.
Thailand's Great Flood likely to peak this weekend
The most damaging natural disaster in Thailand history is growing more serious, as the flood waters besieging the capital of Bangkok continue to overwhelm defenses and inundate the city. Heavy rains during September and October have led to extreme flooding that has killed 373 people and caused that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history, with a cost now estimated at $6 billion. Thailand's previous most expensive disaster was the $1.3 billion price tag of the November 27, 1993 flood, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Floodwaters have swamped fields and cities in a third of Thailand's provinces, affected 9 million people, and damaged approximately 10% of the nation's rice crop. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice, so the disaster may put further upward pressure on world food prices, which are already at the highest levels since the late 1970s. The highest tide of the month occurs this weekend at 8:07 am ICT in the capital of Bangkok, and the additional pressure that incoming salt water puts on the flood walls protecting the city is a major concern. Fortunately, the monsoon has been quiet this week over Southeast Asia, and the latest GFS model precipitation forecast show little additional rain over the country in the coming week. Heavy monsoon rains are common in Thailand and Southeast Asia during La Niña events, and we currently have a weak La Niña event occurring. Ocean temperatures in the waters surrounding Thailand during September and October have been approximately 0.3°C above average, which has increased rainfall amounts by putting more water vapor into the air. The remains of Tropical Storm Haitang and Typhoon Nesat also brought heavy rains in late September which contributed to the flooding.
Figure 3. Top ten most expensive natural disasters in Thailand since 1900, as tabulated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This month's disaster (number one on the table above) is not yet in the CRED data base.
Texas gets its first snow of the season
The first snow of the season blanketed parts of the western and central Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles yesterday. Officially, Amarillo, TX picked up 3.1" of snow, which was a record for the date (old record: 2.4" on Oct. 27, 1911.) Areas 6 miles southwest of Amarillo got up to five inches of snow. Amarillo's heaviest October snow on record was 9.0" on Oct.21 - 22, 1906. The earliest measurable snowfall at Amarillo is 0.3" on Sept. 29, 1984. Yesterday's snow was quite a contrast from Tuesday's weather, when the high hit 86°F in Amarillo! Normally Texas would grumble about getting snow so early in the year, but yesterday's 1.23" of precipitation in Amarillo was over 25% of their precipitation for the entire year. Amarillo has now had 4.84" of precipitation this year, which is almost 14" below normal. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the latest on the Texas drought in his latest post. He noted that Pecos, TX had received a paltry .48" so far this year, and that the driest calendar year in Texas records was 1.64" at Presidio in 1956. Well, Pecos got another 0.02" yesterday to bring their yearly total to 0.50", so that city is still on track to record the lowest rainfall of any city in Texas history.
My next post may not be until Sunday or Monday, depending upon the weather.
Jeff Masters
Water on the ground and on the sky comimg to Bangkok!!
Bangkok Speedway on Khlong 5 flooded,more than 50cm
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The models will not be of any use this early.They struggled with Rina as well. This time of year your eyes and surface obs are the best tools.
14.0" @ Mount Storm, West Virginia
13.0" @ Williams Township, PA
12.2" @ West Milford, NJ
11.0" @ Plainfield, MA
For larger cities:
1.8" @ Central Park, NYC
4.0" @ Yonkers, NY
8.9" @ Danbury, CT
5.5" @ Allentown, PA
0.3" @ Washington, DC
1.5" @ Hartford, CT
The West Virginia snow looks to be about over, as wel las that for the western parts of Pennsylvania and New York. But there looks to be much more on the way for the more heavily populated areas, including New York City.
Live Fox NY coverage. Link
The HRRR model called for scattered amounts over 18", this was laughed at, but it certainly appears possible in some areas now.
yes
Yes, I do. It was a costly storm and caused a lot of damage.
The chances of it developing are pretty slim.
AGAIN! lol!
Another reason why i think nor'easters or "Terracanes", if you will, (the storms that caused the tornadoes this year) should be named.
To the NW of Albany, light snow just started around 2 hours ago and should end in a few hours, yielding totals more like 1-3 inches. That's how these Noreasters always are, though.
Hopefully it's not like last Nov/Dec though. Storm after storm piled snow on the big cities who didn't want it, and people in upstate NY who actually WANT lots of snow for winter activities, did not see more than an inch until January.
I was hoping to get some cross country skiing in tomorrow before work. Doesn't seem like we will have enough snow here.
The one in the WPac looks sickly.
19N40W Fresh windsat
Link
Sneaux 24
Humans 3
Here are snowfall maxima by state as of 21:00 EDT:
Connecticut: 11.0" @ Bristol
Maine: 4.0" @ South Berwick
Maryland: 11.5" @ Sabillasville
Massachusetts: 23.0" @ Peru
New Hampshire: 11.0" @ New Ipswich
New Jersey: 15.5" @ West Milford
New York: 13.0" @ Copake Falls
Pennsylvania: 13.0" @ Huff's Church & Williams Township
West Virginia: 14.0" @ Mount Storm
Vermont: 7.0" @ Wilmington
Amazing numbers for October...
If I'm not mistaken, the last time such significant early season snowfall occurred was in 2000.
Just got off the phone with wife. I'm in St Louis on assignment and she's at home in NH. She says the power went out about an hour ago, the snow is approaching a foot or so, and the wind is picking up and it sounds like more tree branches may be falling.
Would anyone know where to find a current sea temperature map of the area where Rina was. I saw some comments about a cool water upwelling and was wondering about it. I have seen some maps that clearly showed the tracks of hurricanes and the cool water they left but am failing at finding a map with enough discrimination to show me that.
Thanks.
Thank goodness the 12z GFS/NAM ain't coming to fruition!
... Berkshire County... Peru 23.0 730 PM 10/29 wten Washington 22.0 730 PM 10/29 broadcast media Lee 21.0 730 PM 10/29 wten Hinsdale 19.0 730 PM 10/29 wten New Marlborough 16.5 720 PM 10/29 broadcast media Great Barrington 15.0 820 PM 10/29 broadcast media Savoy 14.5 730 PM 10/29 wten Becket 14.0 730 PM 10/29 wten Lanesborough 13.0 919 PM 10/29 weathernet6
This area will wax and wane until it either dissipates, goes inland Nicaragua or attempts to develop. Tomorrow is another day with these late season systems.
Thanks Pat. The heat potential loop answered my question.
Wow almost two feet in Mass!
My high school reunion was tonight in Connecticut (will not say how many years but it's a lot!) and snow definitely affected attendance from what I hear.
(I didn't make it.)
Here are some obs I found from the storm:
Link
Link
Link
EDIT: ^ Those links are supposed to go to specific posts, but for some reason they just go to the thread in general. Just look at page 99. Link
Connecticut: 15.5 @ Ridgefield
Maine: 4.1 @ Hollis
Maryland: 11.5 @ Sabillasville
Massachusetts: 27.0 @ Peru
New Hampshire: 16.5 @ New Hollis
New Jersey: 16.2 @ Sparta
New York: 17.9 @ Millbrook
Pennsylvania: 13.3 @ Tobyhanna
Rhode Island: 3.1 @ West Glocester
West Virginia: 14.0 @ Mount Storm
Vermont: 7.0 @ Wilmington
1st a hurricane now a snowstorm what next a flood?
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