Tropical Storm Rina is being ripped apart by strong upper-level southerly winds creating 30 knots of wind shear over the storm. Visible satellite loops show that the low-level circulation of Rina is just a naked swirl over Cancun, on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The shear has torn away Rina's heavy thunderstorms so that they lie about 200 miles to the northeast of the center. Cancun radar shows almost no rain affecting the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding the waters, even though the center of the storm is directly over Cancun. Last night, Rina brought wind gusts of up to 41 mph to Cancun and 43 mph at Cozumel, where 8.20" of rain fell yesterday. Damage from Rina to Cozumel and Cancun should be very minor, and I expect the hotels there will be open for business today.
Rina will continue to be sheared apart today, with the low level center expected to drift slowly southwards along the Yucatan coast. Long range radar out of Key West shows that moisture streaming to the northeast from Rina is bringing rain to the Southwest coast of Florida. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches are likely over the Florida Keys and South Florida through Sunday due to moisture from Rina. Wind shear should be able to destroy the circulation of Rina by Saturday.
Figure 1. What tropical storm? It's hard to tell a tropical storm with 45 mph winds was centered over this beach in Cancun, Mexico this morning. Rina's heavy rains and strong wind were several hundred miles to the northeast of Cancun this morning, thanks to strong upper-level winds that sheared the storm apart.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rina showing the center of circulation over the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles to the northeast of the center.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A broad region of low pressure in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and Honduras is drifting slowly northwest at less than 5 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity is disorganized and relatively modest, and NHC is giving the region a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Heavy rains from the disturbance will affect Honduras, the Cayman Islands, and Nicaragua Friday through Sunday. None of the reliable computer models are showing development of a new tropical depression in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though we will continue to see disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean that could generate something.
Thailand's Great Flood likely to peak this weekend
The most damaging natural disaster in Thailand history is growing more serious, as the flood waters besieging the capital of Bangkok continue to overwhelm defenses and inundate the city. Heavy rains during September and October have led to extreme flooding that has killed 373 people and caused that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history, with a cost now estimated at $6 billion. Thailand's previous most expensive disaster was the $1.3 billion price tag of the November 27, 1993 flood, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Floodwaters have swamped fields and cities in a third of Thailand's provinces, affected 9 million people, and damaged approximately 10% of the nation's rice crop. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice, so the disaster may put further upward pressure on world food prices, which are already at the highest levels since the late 1970s. The highest tide of the month occurs this weekend at 8:07 am ICT in the capital of Bangkok, and the additional pressure that incoming salt water puts on the flood walls protecting the city is a major concern. Fortunately, the monsoon has been quiet this week over Southeast Asia, and the latest GFS model precipitation forecast show little additional rain over the country in the coming week. Heavy monsoon rains are common in Thailand and Southeast Asia during La Niña events, and we currently have a weak La Niña event occurring. Ocean temperatures in the waters surrounding Thailand during September and October have been approximately 0.3°C above average, which has increased rainfall amounts by putting more water vapor into the air. The remains of Tropical Storm Haitang and Typhoon Nesat also brought heavy rains in late September which contributed to the flooding.
Figure 3. Top ten most expensive natural disasters in Thailand since 1900, as tabulated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This month's disaster (number one on the table above) is not yet in the CRED data base.
Texas gets its first snow of the season
The first snow of the season blanketed parts of the western and central Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles yesterday. Officially, Amarillo, TX picked up 3.1" of snow, which was a record for the date (old record: 2.4" on Oct. 27, 1911.) Areas 6 miles southwest of Amarillo got up to five inches of snow. Amarillo's heaviest October snow on record was 9.0" on Oct.21 - 22, 1906. The earliest measurable snowfall at Amarillo is 0.3" on Sept. 29, 1984. Yesterday's snow was quite a contrast from Tuesday's weather, when the high hit 86°F in Amarillo! Normally Texas would grumble about getting snow so early in the year, but yesterday's 1.23" of precipitation in Amarillo was over 25% of their precipitation for the entire year. Amarillo has now had 4.84" of precipitation this year, which is almost 14" below normal. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the latest on the Texas drought in his latest post. He noted that Pecos, TX had received a paltry .48" so far this year, and that the driest calendar year in Texas records was 1.64" at Presidio in 1956. Well, Pecos got another 0.02" yesterday to bring their yearly total to 0.50", so that city is still on track to record the lowest rainfall of any city in Texas history.
My next post may not be until Sunday or Monday, depending upon the weather.
Jeff Masters
Water on the ground and on the sky comimg to Bangkok!!
Bangkok Speedway on Khlong 5 flooded,more than 50cm
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Haha, first thing I thought was oh man, those poor people wading around in the water are going to get really sick. That water has got to be nasty and on par with the pollution in the flood waters in New Orleans after the levees broke. This is comparable to the entire city and metro areas Los Angles being flooded under 5 feet of water.
lol.
We've gone from nothing to 4-6. I'll be out of here before then, thankfully, but that cleanup costs money.
ps love the blog read everyday!
NE NJ. Forecast has gone from nothing, to 1-3, to
4-6 just so far today. :/
And now you got that bonus moisture heading towards Florida. This could be a crazy Bastardi prophecy that even goes beyond his wildest dreams, especially considering it's wet heavy crap.
Link
Track? No.
Intensity? Kinda, but everybody did.
Did you read the link earlier from Aussie storm about what it was like for one man trying to save his business from the floodwaters? It was like devastation for thousands of businesses manufacturing all sorts of things - and people being hit are very poor and losing everything. I agree - not a joking matter about this level of flood.
What a difference a few miles make. Winds were not that bad last night over here on Cozumel. I got almost 12 inches or rain in two hours though.
You are not serious, are you?
To me this is like hanging on to the bitter end of tropical season.
I seriously doubt that an actual tropical depression is going to form in the Gulf from the leftover low-level circulation from Rina. I know it is hard to give up on the tropical season but it has to happen sooner or later. And yes, the waters in the GOM are just not warm enough to generate a tropical cyclone of any kind at this point.
If a tropical storm were to form in the Caribbean it could still be a tropical cyclone, albeit a weakening one, by the time it moved north into the GOM. But seriously, this season has now reached turkey status; it is time to stick a fork in it cuz it is done, at least for the CONUS.
You can clearly see Rina LLC moving ESE and convection from ex97L moving up in her direction, what will happen when the 2 collide, just sayin.....
yeah I was thinking I think it may help 97L to develop and Rina to redevelop
check out the low level clouds coming from the east and the front coming through the gulf on the low level cloud loop of this link all that air is going to be piling up big time in the western carib over the next couple of days could be a very wet weekend!select 15 fps for a better loop
Link
baha we ain't from Japan we are Caymanians from Cayman NOT CAYMANESE ok
On that loop interesting low level swirl moving towards Bermuda.... I doubt it will develop but interesting nonetheless..
I was about to ask that very same quesiton! Anyone with an answer or a suggestion?
Figure 1. 12Z NGP @ 144 hours.
.
I don't know what parry means in the context you're using it, but you are as far as I'm concerned a respected blogger who looks at forecasts reasonably. You don't downplay what is or go looking for trouble...thinking of scenarios with slim(if any) possibility.
.
I was simply making the point that we have SOME Caymanites who get jumpy. Still good people, just jumpy. And wondering why. All the islanders, and most of our mainland members have been through canes and we don't like them.
It seems a wise person will look and say, "Clearly, something has changed". Wonder what it could be?
More and more power accumulating into the hands of the deliberately ignorant and deliberately malign directing the governance by the disingenuously incompetent.
The "monsoon" flooding of Bangkok is no more a natural disaster than the "Katrina" flooding of NewOrleans.
I want to cry.
I'm good and hope all is well with you.
Sorry I missed this response.
So, you think it's IVAN.
If you can talk about it...what happened to most people during Ivan. What makes it different than other storms(Andrew, Katrina, Ike, Wilma, and on and on) that our members have experienced. There was some talk yesterday about how the Caymans are the safest spot to ride out a storm. And only that one fatality during, which was more at-fault than caused by storm.
I know it's that time of the day, but pressures are lowering across the Caribbean
Good question Cosmic, I think what happened to us was that so many hurricanes passed us so close, ie: Gilbert in 1988 was supposed to be most intense storm until his record was broken in 2005 and to me at least, it was just a good summer squall compared to Ivan 2004. We were just overwhelmed by the devastation caused by Ivan, but we licked our wounds, got up and rebuilt our Island even better! What I thought would have taken 10-15 years to do , we did in 3-5 years. I still maintain that we are one the safest places to be in a hurricane prone area because of the reasons I listed previously, But when you spent 30 hours in 150mph winds you never forget it!!
In the Cayman Islands, Governor Bruce Dinwiddy described damage as "very, very severe and widespread." Despite strict building codes which made the islands' buildings well able to withstand even major hurricanes, Ivan's winds and storm surge were so strong that a quarter or more of the buildings on the islands were reported to be uninhabitable, with 85% damaged to some extent. Much of Grand Cayman still remained without power, water, or sewer services for several months later. After five months, barely half the pre-Ivan hotel rooms were usable. Only two people were killed on the islands, though at first many deaths were suspected because of the many graves that were washed up during the storm.[17] The damage totaled US$1.85 billion (2004 USD, $2.15 billion 2011 USD) in the Cayman Islands.[1]
Fairfax
Winter Weather Advisory
Statement as of 6:32 PM EDT on October 28, 2011
... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 2 am to 8 PM EDT
Saturday...
The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect
from 2 am to 8 PM EDT Saturday.
* Precipitation type... snow.
* Accumulations... 1 to 4 inches... with the lowest amounts near
Interstate 95.
* Timing... rain will overspread the Baltimore Washington area this
evening... mixing with snow late tonight. The heaviest snow will
fall during the day on Saturday. The accumulating snow will end
by mid to late afternoon.
* Impacts... heavy wet snow will likely accumulate on trees. With
foliage still on trees... the snow may lead to broken tree limbs
and power outages. Hazardous travel on snow-covered roads is
also possible.
* Temperatures... in the upper 30s.
* Winds... north 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.
Hts/listemaa
The 4 connected line-segments represent exRina's path,
and the coastline dumbbell at 21.551n87.007w-ISJ is the endpoint of the 28Oct_6amGMT straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
exRina's travel-speed was 5.5mph(8.9k/h) on a heading of 51.2degrees(NE)
Copy&paste tuy, pcm, snj, lcl, cyo, 21.551n87.007w-isj, 19.5n87.1w-20.2n87.2w, 20.2n87.2w-20.9n87.1w, 20.9n87.1w-21.5n86.8w, 21.5n86.8w- 21.8n86.4w, 21.5n86.8w-22.5n85.455w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 28Oct_6amGMT
There's a blob approaching Florida and "Doom'Con" Nor'Easter a gathering.
Lets get to it.
ASAP...
Storm Total Snow Forecast
Link
I think X97L would be what was being talked about, Rina is gone, and not in the Carrebean, Thank goodness, things could have gotten really bad.
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