Rina pulls its punch; Thai floods worsen; Texas gets snow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:34 PM GMT em 28 de Outubro de 2011

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Tropical Storm Rina is being ripped apart by strong upper-level southerly winds creating 30 knots of wind shear over the storm. Visible satellite loops show that the low-level circulation of Rina is just a naked swirl over Cancun, on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The shear has torn away Rina's heavy thunderstorms so that they lie about 200 miles to the northeast of the center. Cancun radar shows almost no rain affecting the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding the waters, even though the center of the storm is directly over Cancun. Last night, Rina brought wind gusts of up to 41 mph to Cancun and 43 mph at Cozumel, where 8.20" of rain fell yesterday. Damage from Rina to Cozumel and Cancun should be very minor, and I expect the hotels there will be open for business today.

Rina will continue to be sheared apart today, with the low level center expected to drift slowly southwards along the Yucatan coast. Long range radar out of Key West shows that moisture streaming to the northeast from Rina is bringing rain to the Southwest coast of Florida. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches are likely over the Florida Keys and South Florida through Sunday due to moisture from Rina. Wind shear should be able to destroy the circulation of Rina by Saturday.


Figure 1. What tropical storm? It's hard to tell a tropical storm with 45 mph winds was centered over this beach in Cancun, Mexico this morning. Rina's heavy rains and strong wind were several hundred miles to the northeast of Cancun this morning, thanks to strong upper-level winds that sheared the storm apart.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rina showing the center of circulation over the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles to the northeast of the center.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A broad region of low pressure in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and Honduras is drifting slowly northwest at less than 5 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity is disorganized and relatively modest, and NHC is giving the region a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Heavy rains from the disturbance will affect Honduras, the Cayman Islands, and Nicaragua Friday through Sunday. None of the reliable computer models are showing development of a new tropical depression in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though we will continue to see disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean that could generate something.

Thailand's Great Flood likely to peak this weekend
The most damaging natural disaster in Thailand history is growing more serious, as the flood waters besieging the capital of Bangkok continue to overwhelm defenses and inundate the city. Heavy rains during September and October have led to extreme flooding that has killed 373 people and caused that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history, with a cost now estimated at $6 billion. Thailand's previous most expensive disaster was the $1.3 billion price tag of the November 27, 1993 flood, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Floodwaters have swamped fields and cities in a third of Thailand's provinces, affected 9 million people, and damaged approximately 10% of the nation's rice crop. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice, so the disaster may put further upward pressure on world food prices, which are already at the highest levels since the late 1970s. The highest tide of the month occurs this weekend at 8:07 am ICT in the capital of Bangkok, and the additional pressure that incoming salt water puts on the flood walls protecting the city is a major concern. Fortunately, the monsoon has been quiet this week over Southeast Asia, and the latest GFS model precipitation forecast show little additional rain over the country in the coming week. Heavy monsoon rains are common in Thailand and Southeast Asia during La Niña events, and we currently have a weak La Niña event occurring. Ocean temperatures in the waters surrounding Thailand during September and October have been approximately 0.3°C above average, which has increased rainfall amounts by putting more water vapor into the air. The remains of Tropical Storm Haitang and Typhoon Nesat also brought heavy rains in late September which contributed to the flooding.


Figure 3. Top ten most expensive natural disasters in Thailand since 1900, as tabulated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This month's disaster (number one on the table above) is not yet in the CRED data base.

Texas gets its first snow of the season
The first snow of the season blanketed parts of the western and central Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles yesterday. Officially, Amarillo, TX picked up 3.1" of snow, which was a record for the date (old record: 2.4" on Oct. 27, 1911.) Areas 6 miles southwest of Amarillo got up to five inches of snow. Amarillo's heaviest October snow on record was 9.0" on Oct.21 - 22, 1906. The earliest measurable snowfall at Amarillo is 0.3" on Sept. 29, 1984. Yesterday's snow was quite a contrast from Tuesday's weather, when the high hit 86°F in Amarillo! Normally Texas would grumble about getting snow so early in the year, but yesterday's 1.23" of precipitation in Amarillo was over 25% of their precipitation for the entire year. Amarillo has now had 4.84" of precipitation this year, which is almost 14" below normal. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the latest on the Texas drought in his latest post. He noted that Pecos, TX had received a paltry .48" so far this year, and that the driest calendar year in Texas records was 1.64" at Presidio in 1956. Well, Pecos got another 0.02" yesterday to bring their yearly total to 0.50", so that city is still on track to record the lowest rainfall of any city in Texas history.

My next post may not be until Sunday or Monday, depending upon the weather.

Jeff Masters

Amarillo snow! (oklahomagirl1)
Early Amarillo,Tx. snow.
Amarillo snow!
Raining in Bangkok (Bangkrood)
Water on the ground and on the sky comimg to Bangkok!!
Raining in Bangkok
Not any Race today (Faasai)
Bangkok Speedway on Khlong 5 flooded,more than 50cm
Not any Race today

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Hey guys do you think that the name Irene will get retired from this year's hurricanes season?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
As of 6:00 PM, these have been among the highest snowfall totals:

14.0" @ Mount Storm, West Virginia
13.0" @ Williams Township, PA
12.2" @ West Milford, NJ
11.0" @ Plainfield, MA

For larger cities:
1.8" @ Central Park, NYC
4.0" @ Yonkers, NY
8.9" @ Danbury, CT
5.5" @ Allentown, PA
0.3" @ Washington, DC
1.5" @ Hartford, CT

The West Virginia snow looks to be about over, as wel las that for the western parts of Pennsylvania and New York. But there looks to be much more on the way for the more heavily populated areas, including New York City.


The HRRR model called for scattered amounts over 18", this was laughed at, but it certainly appears possible in some areas now.
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New Jersey declared a state of emergency. A million plus people in the NE without power, half of those in NJ. This storm is having more if an impact than Irene did in a lot of areas as hundreds of trees are down because the leaves are still on them. New Jersey and New York officials says recovery may take "weeks."
Live Fox NY coverage. Link
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As of 6:00 PM, these have been among the highest snowfall totals:

14.0" @ Mount Storm, West Virginia
13.0" @ Williams Township, PA
12.2" @ West Milford, NJ
11.0" @ Plainfield, MA

For larger cities:
1.8" @ Central Park, NYC
4.0" @ Yonkers, NY
8.9" @ Danbury, CT
5.5" @ Allentown, PA
0.3" @ Washington, DC
1.5" @ Hartford, CT

The West Virginia snow looks to be about over, as wel las that for the western parts of Pennsylvania and New York. But there looks to be much more on the way for the more heavily populated areas, including New York City.
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Quoting wn1995:
Live updates on major Nor'easter!

If anyone is interested in reading.

This is a pretty historic storm, not often you get a storm like this this early.
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Quoting kmanislander:
I'm going to take a break now and come back later to see how the NHC rates that area. Not much more one can say at this time.
See you later.
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
I'm going to take a break now and come back later to see how the NHC rates that area. Not much more one can say at this time.
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Quoting BenBIogger:


The 18z GFS (72 hours) keeps the broad low meandering east of Nicaragua.


The models will not be of any use this early.They struggled with Rina as well. This time of year your eyes and surface obs are the best tools.
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Pressures are lower than usual, but it's a normal dip for this time of day I think
Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7931
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What about pressures now ?


1008 at San Andres
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These Obs does support some kind of circulation
Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7931
Quoting kmanislander:
San Andres island has winds out of the N now so there are signs of a weak surface circulation developing IMO.
What about pressures now ?
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
San Andres island has winds out of the N now so there are signs of a weak surface circulation developing IMO.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Current steering means going nowhere. Maybe a slow drift to the N but mostly stationary.


The 18z GFS (72 hours) keeps the broad low meandering east of Nicaragua.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Give us your full opinion on the system...Track, Development chances, intensity, etc.


The only item in that list that I would express a view on this early in the game is the chance for development. The NHC rate the chances from earlier at 10%. I think right now they are more like 20% and that we will see language later to the effect that there has been some slight increase in organization of the showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean but development, if any, will be slow to occur due to proximity to land. The chances of becoming a tropical cyclone etc are 20%
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is almost exactly how Hurricane Rina formed...Front to the north, produced disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity around Honduras/Nicaragua...Started to consolidate north of Panama, and then moved slowly north/northwestward.



Just like you said... Rina Part 2 :P
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Quoting kmanislander:


Current steering means going nowhere. Maybe a slow drift to the N but mostly stationary.
Thanks.
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting kmanislander:


It will likely take it's own sweet time, the kind of pace that drives the bloggers wild LOL

Give us your full opinion on the system...Track, Development chances, intensity, etc.
Member Since: Julho 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Shear should not be a problem.



Current steering if I am not mistaken calls for a mostly northern route.



Current steering means going nowhere. Maybe a slow drift to the N but mostly stationary.
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Quoting kmanislander:


It will likely take it's own sweet time, the kind of pace that drives the bloggers wild LOL
Agreed. Not many develop and intensify as rapidly as a select few do.
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Shear should not be a problem.



Current steering if I am not mistaken calls for a mostly northern route.

Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't know if anything will develop but looks like it is trying to.


It will likely take it's own sweet time, the kind of pace that drives the bloggers wild LOL
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Quoting kmanislander:


Much improved since earlier today.
I don't know if anything will develop but looks like it is trying to.
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Vorticity definitely improving.


Much improved since earlier today.
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Member Since: Setembro 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11275
Quoting kmanislander:


Ah, yes lol

Sorry, had to reboot my modem. Was off for a while



Vorticity definitely improving.
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting sdswwwe:


Where abouts to you work Kman, if you don't mind me asking?


Do you mean on which island or where on Grand Cayman ?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You mean like this ?


Current Weather Conditions:
Bocas Del Toro International, Panama
(MPBO) 09-21N 082-15W
Conditions at

2011.10.29 2100 UTC
Wind from the NW (310 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)

Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 74%


Ah, yes lol

Sorry, had to reboot my modem. Was off for a while
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Quoting kmanislander:


Been up to the eyeballs in work at the office. Next week probably more of the same but will be here this weekend ( and next week if conditions warrant )


Where abouts to you work Kman, if you don't mind me asking?
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Quoting kmanislander:


If anything does spin up down there it will take a long time closing off as the broad area of low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough right now.

I wouldn't expect to see much happen there for another 24 to 48 hours. Proximity to the coast is also another inhibiting factor.

Look for signs of a NW or WNW wind at Bocas Del Toro on the NW coast of Panama for signs of a surface low attempting to organize. Last obs from there showed a South wind. Same for Panama City. Pressure around 1007 but that is not unusual for being that close to the equator with the monsoon trough active.
You mean like this ?


Current Weather Conditions:
Bocas Del Toro International, Panama
(MPBO) 09-21N 082-15W
Conditions at

2011.10.29 2100 UTC
Wind from the NW (310 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)

Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
This is almost exactly how Hurricane Rina formed...Front to the north, produced disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity around Honduras/Nicaragua...Started to consolidate north of Panama, and then moved slowly north/northwestward.

Member Since: Julho 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting kmanislander:


Better to be paranoid than to be caught napping. Paloma demonstrated that once something starts to come up from down there it can be upon you in a hurry.

Lots of TCHP left as fuel, certainly enough to support a major cane.

Getting pretty close to when she developed too.
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Member Since: Julho 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Although our "interest" has been called paranoia LOL. Who feels it knows it.


Better to be paranoid than to be caught napping. Paloma demonstrated that once something starts to come up from down there it can be upon you in a hurry.

Lots of TCHP left as fuel, certainly enough to support a major cane.

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Quoting kmanislander:


If anything does spin up down there it will take a long time closing off as the broad area of low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough right now.

I wouldn't expect to see much happen there for another 24 to 48 hours. Proximity to the coast is also another inhibiting factor.

Look for signs of a NW or WNW wind at Bocas Del Toro on the NW coast of Panama for signs of a surface low attempting to organize. Last obs from there showed a South wind. Same for Panama City. Pressure around 1007 but that is not unusual for being that close to the equator with the monsoon trough active.
If you are lucky you might get in your golf game tomorrow. We had some good rain up here this morning but sun is shining now.
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting caymanlurker:


Indeed it is. Having all experienced Ivan, there is certainly an active 'Cayman' interest on this blog. All eyes on the SW Carib.


Things have picked up since this morning but watching this will require a fair amount of patience as development, if any, will be very slow to occur. Typical for this time of year in that area.
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Quoting caymanlurker:


Indeed it is. Having all experienced Ivan, there is certainly an active 'Cayman' interest on this blog. All eyes on the SW Carib.
Although our "interest" has been called paranoia LOL. Who feels it knows it.
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sounds good and look forward to it as I know the rest of the Caymanians on here do also.


Indeed it is. Having all experienced Ivan, there is certainly an active 'Cayman' interest on this blog. All eyes on the SW Carib.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sounds good and look forward to it as I know the rest of the Caymanians on here do also.


If anything does spin up down there it will take a long time closing off as the broad area of low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough right now.

I wouldn't expect to see much happen there for another 24 to 48 hours. Proximity to the coast is also another inhibiting factor.

Look for signs of a NW or WNW wind at Bocas Del Toro on the NW coast of Panama for signs of a surface low attempting to organize. Last obs from there showed a South wind. Same for Panama City. Pressure around 1007 but that is not unusual for being that close to the equator with the monsoon trough active.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Been up to the eyeballs in work at the office. Next week probably more of the same but will be here this weekend ( and next week if conditions warrant )
Sounds good and look forward to it as I know the rest of the Caymanians on here do also.
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where have you been the past few days ? Always look forward to your posts.


Been up to the eyeballs in work at the office. Next week probably more of the same but will be here this weekend ( and next week if conditions warrant )
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TC formation probability is fairly high right now.



Vertical instability close to climo and much higher than of late as well allowing for greater chances of development in the SW Caribbean.



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Quoting kmanislander:


Getting interesting down there. Pressure at San Andres island is now 1008 mbs.




Whatever is down there is not going anywhere anytime soon. Another classic set up for a slow drift North as with Rina

Where have you been the past few days ? Always look forward to your posts.
Member Since: Outubro 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting stormpetrol:
3 hours ago


now






Getting interesting down there. Pressure at San Andres island is now 1008 mbs.




Whatever is down there is not going anywhere anytime soon. Another classic set up for a slow drift North as with Rina

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Quoting wn1995:


Oh, yeah. Some very strong winds should be expected there.


also this has been one of our rainiest octobers yet with 297 mm/12 in of rain and we are supposed to get 70 mm/3 in more. Crazy!
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Quoting wn1995:


Oh, yeah. Some very strong winds should be expected there.


yeah ... if we were to get snow and those winds there would be trees down everywhere... we still got lots of leaves on them.
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
What a joke our local Met's and the Weather Channel 70% rain for South Florida and the Miami area,here in Miami no a drop of rain!! today,Sunny at times!!,how can they be so wrong!!! with all the models they follow,LOL!!!!.
In Northern Broward I just got over 2" of rain in the last 25 minutes. Plus the water's cold.........and it's deep too!
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Quoting Dragod66:


Bedford Nova Scotia


Oh, yeah. Some very strong winds should be expected there.
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3 hours ago


now




Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7931
What a joke our local Met's and the Weather Channel 70% rain for South Florida and the Miami area,here in Miami no a drop of rain!! today,Sunny at times!!,how can they be so wrong!!! with all the models they follow,LOL!!!!.
Member Since: Agosto 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 623
Woot it's snowing!.It appears to be sticking now.The tempeture outside this morning was forty.But it has since went down it's now 33 degress outside according to my computer.I'm going out I hope it's not to bad.
Member Since: Agosto 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17091

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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