Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 08:27 PM GMT em 06 de Julho de 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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2036. ladyweatherbug
03:05 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
StormW...are the current weather patterns in the Atlantic and Carribean typical for this time of year? Can we tell what effects, if any, the la nina are having (or will have)at this point?
2035. weathersp
01:47 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
New Blog!
Member Since: Janeiro 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
2033. bobw999
01:42 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
NEW BLOG
2032. snotly
01:27 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
How does Man-Yi size compare to Tip at this point. Not sure if it will be as powerful, but that storm is huge! Whats the wind field on that?
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 686
2031. stoormfury
01:27 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
good morning,

shear is very high in the caribbean and atlantic today. according to the atlantic shear forecast maps, the shear is expected to relax by thursday giving a better chance of tropical storm development. the moisture level is increasing some what and that should help the waves. On the other hand the sal has weakened from 40w to the island chain., whereas it is still dense from 40w to the african coast. at the moment the two troical waves approaching the islands are having the thunder tops sheared off thereby precluding any tropical storm development.
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720
2030. Melagoo
01:14 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Looks like we are in for some severe weather up here today
Member Since: Julho 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1604
2029. corimorgan
01:13 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Hey Storm W... did you remove your blog entry? Are you going to do an update today?
2028. groundman
01:09 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
I've looked @ the models, previous years, etc. etc. Only thing I can find of any interest is Navy/NRL Tropical Cyclone Page still has 96L and FNMOC site doesn't?

Also if you put CMC on 850 mb vorticity ,CMC link, you get a storm @ about 120 hr. dipping down in the gulf before going back up into the FL GA area. Storm actually forms in the panhandle area of OK though, I guess this is possible that something could come of this but not probable??

Oh and the area by 55W 11N Link

That's my unlearned take on today. Need to work.
2027. Patrap
01:08 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
West-Pacific FULL DISK Water Vapor

Link
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2026. Altestic87
01:06 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
I want some chinese food.
2025. Patrap
01:00 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Okinowa is in the path..of Man-yi and would be the first part of the Japanese Islands to be affected..late thurs -fri
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2024. Melagoo
01:00 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Thanks Patrap ... it looks to be heading straight for S. Korea
Member Since: Julho 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1604
2023. weatherboykris
12:59 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Beware the TCHP...LOL





Member Since: Dezembro 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
2022. sunshineandshowers
12:59 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Hello everyone.

I don't post much, but the WPac discussion is really interesting.

I lived in Japan for three years from 1998 to 2001, and got hit by three typhoons, one was tropical storm strength, the other two were about CAT1/2 when they passed over.

In the south, especially the island and Kyushu Cat 4 typhoons are not unheard of, but Cat 5 are rare. It's not really lower SSTs which are the problem, but increasing vertical shear as the systems turn poleward. In 2005 one Typhoon, can't remember which one, brought over 1000mm of rain to Kyushu. Often the problems are more rain related than wind related, especially because of the topography. The land in all of Japan, other than where TOkyo is, is very mountainous. So there isn't the low land flooding seen with Katrina etc, but instead huge mountain torrents which literally wipe away villages, and cause so terrible mudslides.

At the moment it looks like Japan is going to be worst affected by this system, not just mainland but in particular the islands south of the country where there's no way of weakening the system.

But it's early days, it might recurve, could head towards Fujian province or Eastern China, maybe miss Japan and affect Korea as a weak typhoon or tropical storm.

But this is a monster already and it's not even really in an area beneficial for coriolis and the warmest ssts are still to come.
Member Since: Agosto 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
2021. Altestic87
12:56 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Is there a chance this could be bigger/stronger/better than Tip?
2020. Altestic87
12:55 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Manyi looks bigger than Texas...and Katrina combined!!!

And wait..it's still a freaking TROPICAL STORM?


Only area of interest in the atlantic is the spin east of the Lesser Antilles.
2019. Patrap
12:55 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
tanks ric,,umflgob,they goob..LOL
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2018. Patrap
12:54 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Latest on MAN-Yi

Link
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2017. Melagoo
12:53 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Hello all ...

Why hasn't Man-Yi been updated on the Navy site yet?

Man-Yi looks pretty organized ...

Link
Member Since: Julho 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1604
2016. ricderr
12:51 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
1


here you go pat.......beats popcorn anyday
Member Since: Junho 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
2015. Patrap
12:47 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
LOL..!
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2014. Patrap
12:47 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Hey rainman..one can get some Floridian forecasters/bloggers and start a petition to have me removed..Okay?
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2013. Patrap
12:47 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Good deal..glad you got the rain..
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2012. ladyweatherbug
12:45 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Hey Pat...the bad karma is gone...at least somewhat....after I did the Indian rain dance to Earth Wind & Fire on Friday, we got a nice little rain....not nearly enough, but beggars can't be choosers!
2011. dnalia
12:43 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Mornin'. Anything interesting?
2010. Gatorxgrrrl
12:42 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Morning everyone.
Member Since: Maio 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
2009. pottery2
12:40 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Sorry for the double
Will be back later..........
2007. Patrap
12:39 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
NORTH ATLANTIC IMAGERY



Northwest Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image
(From GOES-EAST Satellite)

Link
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2006. ricderr
12:39 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Now hold on patrick...not all of us floridians.....are touchy...it's you louisianians that are oh so sensitive...LOL....now...how long can we argue FL or NO before we get tossed out of here?....LMAO
Member Since: Junho 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
2005. pottery2
12:36 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Good morning
Trinidad weather today and for the next few days is for thunder and heavy rain. Overcast and unsettled right now.
press. 1014 steady, Humidity 97 %.
Looking forward to that..............
2004. Patrap
12:35 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Ill remove the thing..I know them Floridians a touchy bunch...
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2003. Patrap
12:34 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Stirring things up?..LOL.Thats a new twist..
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2002. pottery2
12:33 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Good morning
Trinidad weather today and for the next few days is for thunder and heavy rain. Overcast and unsettled right now.
press. 1014 steady, Humidity 97 %.
Looking forward to that..............
2001. ricderr
12:33 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
not much nash......and especially not much in the tropics...only excitement is pat getting content censored for dated material.....i'd grab popcorn..but i think it's a short movie
Member Since: Junho 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
2000. Rainman32
12:31 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Related content works fine with IE7.. the series is dated though, and without the full stories.. just stirring things up with that one
Member Since: Setembro 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
1999. nash28
12:31 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Morning gang.
Member Since: Julho 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1998. Patrap
12:27 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Green day
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1997. Patrap
12:26 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Humble pie
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1996. Patrap
12:26 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
If one is using IE to surf weather sites..Toss it and install Firefox2..Its Wunderyakusa approved....!
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1995. Rainman32
12:25 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Series from 2005.. don't think it has anything to do with browser.. story simply not found. http://www.miamiherald.com/news/front/12853399.htm
Member Since: Setembro 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
1994. Patrap
12:24 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Bob
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1993. bobw999
12:24 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Works for me (uses Firefox)

Looks like an eyewall is forming Link
1992. IKE
12:24 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Posted By: groundman at 7:17 AM CDT on July 09, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 11:59 AM GMT on July 09, 2007.
I still see a spin at 10.5N,55.5W.


I can see what you mean if you look @ the water vapor and watch the outer edges, too early, time for a shower and more coffeee.


There's not much else to look at in the Atlantic...some waves behind it. Must be an impressive one coming off of...."I miss the rains down in Africa"........

Man-yi headed for cat 4...........

10.5N, 55.5 W appears headed for Grenada and Barbados.
Member Since: Junho 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1991. Patrap
12:22 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
U2
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1990. ricderr
12:21 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
doda...if you're running IE...go to your tool bar and click off "show pictures" and your dial up woes are solved...
Member Since: Junho 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
1989. Rainman32
12:21 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Pat, just how old is that series.. when you click on "Full Story" links, not found.
Member Since: Setembro 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
1988. ricderr
12:18 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
pat...you can't access any of the full stories......from that link.......oh well...that's "miami" for you...LOL
Member Since: Junho 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
1987. groundman
12:17 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Posted By: IKE at 11:59 AM GMT on July 09, 2007.
I still see a spin at 10.5N,55.5W.


I can see what you mean if you look @ the water vapor and watch the outer edges, too early, time for a shower and more coffeee.
1986. Patrap
12:15 PM GMT em 09 de Julho de 2007
Foo-fighter
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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