Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 08:27 PM GMT em 06 de Julho de 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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1286. BahaHurican
2:30 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Lastest JTWC info on 04W.

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1285. nash28
6:28 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
LOL guys. What it means is hang on to your asses in August thru October.
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1283. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:03 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
is that 97L i see off of S.A.
Member Since: Julho 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1282. moonlightcowboy
6:19 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Whatch you talkin' 'bout, Willis?

...lol, sorry couldn't resist!


L8R, Baha.
Member Since: Julho 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1281. BahaHurican
2:15 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
I'm out for a while. Later, all.
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1280. whirlwind
6:14 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
ahhh...nice and quite in the tropics...not to worry. The more weeks and months we go without a storm, the busier it will get later. hmmm...whats the prediction, lik,e 17 storms or so? That means we might be seeing a new storm every week!!! wont that be exciting?! And what if, theres a double header....one hurricane following another hurricane AND forecast track the same.. WOW..could get fun and interesting.
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1279. BahaHurican
2:13 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Here is the 2:05 discussion:

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 2N-14N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THIS WAVE WAS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY W OF WHERE CONTINUITY
WOULD HAVE TAKEN IT...BASED ON THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING NOTED FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 37W-43W...AND THE SURGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 39W-45W. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL THOUGH. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP
FURTHER W ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 49W-57W AS DISCUSSED BELOW.
BASED ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF 51W WHICH WILL BE
REEVALUATED FOR THE 1800 UTC MAP.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS IDENTITY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND NOW IS MAINLY JUST A SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
WELL BY SSMI DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
MINIMAL ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 81W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ALSO ENHANCED BY THE
ITCZ...ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 13N.
LOW CLOUD MOTIONS SHOW SOME CYCLONIC TURNING S OF CUBA...N OF
17N BETWEEN 78W-84W...BUT AM NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED THIS IS DUE
TO THE WAVE. REGARDLESS...LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS ISOLATED TSTMS
IN THIS REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 5N25W 8N38W 9N50W 7N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS E OF 15W...AND BETWEEN 19W-29W. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
48W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N88W. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W. HOWEVER...LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS IS PRODUCING WEAK TROUGHING IN
THE SE GULF. THIS WAS PLACED ALONG 25N82W 23N88W AT 8/1500
UTC...AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN
60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO AIDED BY
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH JUST W OF TAMPA AND BROAD
TROUGHING IN THE CARIBBEAN. A PAIR OF THIN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE JUST S OF THE FL PANHANDLE...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE S AND AHEAD OF THE LOW SPINNING OVER ALABAMA/GEORGIA.
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND RIDGING
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE WEATHER MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
THE BASIN IS FAIRLY QUIET. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE IN PLACE
S OF AN ATLC SFC RIDGE...AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE TRADES ARE ALLOWING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PUSH W ACROSS THE
AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN IS LARGELY DOMINATED BY ELONGATED
TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS E/W ALONG 15/16N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINS OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST...WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM PALM BEACH TO
32N74W. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE THAT HAS HUNG
AROUND IN THIS VICINITY THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE ACTIVITY IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS BY AND LARGE DOMINATED
BY A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A 1032MB HIGH
NEAR 42N22W. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADES E OF 70W. THE WEAK TROUGHING/LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/LIFT NE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ALOFT ON THE LARGE
SCALE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FAR W AND E PORTIONS
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC. OTHER SMALLER SCALE UPPER FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS
PATTERN BUT ARE NOT GENERATING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

$$
WILLIS

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1278. Thunderstorm2
2:02 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Tropical Storm 04W is still forecast to become a HUGE Typhoon!

And i mean HUGE as in the size that Typhoon Tip was back in 1979!
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1277. bobw999
2:08 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Tropicfreak you posted the 8:05 am discussion.
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1276. moonlightcowboy
6:07 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
..TROPICAL WAVES...
A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N34W TO 10N37W 5N38W MOVING W
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND IS CAUSING A POLEWARD
PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-3N BETWEEN 36W-39W.
Member Since: Julho 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1275. stoormfury
6:04 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
is there a small swirl near9n 38w.? it could be interesting to watch the next few days. The Shear is expected to relax in three days time.
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1274. Patrap
1:07 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
NORTH ATLANTIC IMAGERY



Northwest Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image
(From GOES-EAST Satellite)


Link

reloaded
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1273. BahaHurican
2:04 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
What are they hinting at, MLC?
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1272. IKE
1:01 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: stoormfury at 12:56 PM CDT on July 08, 2007.
Ike, what is your take on this large wave in the CATL? it has has some circulation at the mid levels. at the moment it lacks convection.


Something to keep an eye on..probably won't develop...plenty of moisture though.
Member Since: Junho 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1271. moonlightcowboy
5:58 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Boy, they sure seem to be hinting at something. I just don't see it.
Member Since: Julho 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1270. tropicfreak
1:34 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
000
AXNT20 KNHC 081045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N34W TO 10N37W 5N38W MOVING W
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND IS CAUSING A POLEWARD
PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-3N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
TODAY CROSSING MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THIS WAVE...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA
IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N
OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 78W-80W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND THEN WESTERN CUBA TODAY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 8N40W 8N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-30W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 37W-42W...AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S
GEORGIA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 83W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR
20N100W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 25N AND W OF 92W. SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER S MEXICO. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 90W. LIKEWISE...SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MERGE WITH A WESTWARD
EXPANDING ATLANTIC RIDGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ALONG 28N. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE N GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A
1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
75W-77W. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED E OF 80W
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 17N78W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-83W. ELSEWHERE...THE SRN
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N HAS WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT CONVECTION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION S OF 13N OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
27N-32N BETWEEN 77W-81W. ELSEWHERE..A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 30N45W TO THE BAHAMAS AT
25N78W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE SUBTROPICS FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E AT
25N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 18N24W.

$$
FORMOSA
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1268. stoormfury
5:53 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Ike, what is your take on this large wave in the CATL? it has has some circulation at the mid levels. at the moment it lacks convection.
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1267. weathersp
1:46 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
You are here
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1266. ldalton477
1:45 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
SST out of Port Everglades last weekend were between 88.5 and 86.5. The lower # was in the stream out to 26 miles. This info is off the Foruno Navnet on my boat. The sensor is (give or take) 18 inches below the surface. If you are fishing --put your baits deep!

Larry
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1265. stoormfury
5:38 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
good afternoon, i agree with you Ike there is no llc in the vicinity of 50w.it is only a moisture surge.pressures n the area are high.bouy 41041 is showing a reading of 39,01 inches and steady.wind shear will not allow any develplment in this area in the near future.
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1264. bobw999
1:39 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Tropical Storm 04W is the big mess toward the bottom right hand corner.
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1263. MrNiceville
5:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I know - I guess it's just an unusual formation of convection...
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1260. weatherboykris
5:40 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I don't see any cool water...

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1259. MrNiceville
5:35 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
It's on the Central Atlantic loop, but it's really small...

About 44.5W just shy of 5N

maybe I'm just starting at nothing...
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1258. IKE
12:33 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Where do you see a possible LLC MrNiceville? I don't see a LLC anywhere in that surge of moisture that's headed for the islands.

Can you give a longitude and latitude on that?
Member Since: Junho 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1257. MrNiceville
5:27 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Back from Mass...

Anyone noticed the V shaped wave following the convection off of SA (SE of the Leeward Islands)? In the last few visible frames, it looks as though there's a llc trying to close itself off on the SW tip of the wave.

Any ideas on whether or not it will be pulled along/around (to the N and W) of the convection that's ahead of it?
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1256. nash28
5:26 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Alot of the reason the SST's are cooler on the east coast is because you guys have had MANY more days of cloud cover with thunderstorms, while we have had much more sun.
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1255. nash28
5:24 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Correct JP. Now, if we can have a similar setup like last year genesis wise with storms forming way out in the ATL either at or above 15N, we stand a much better chance of them recurving before land.

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1254. nash28
5:23 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
That's ok 23. I wasn't busting your chops or anything:-) I figured you meant on the east coast.

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1252. hurricane23
5:21 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I know temps reaching 85-86 near parts of key west.But i meant on the eastcoast side of things.
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1251. nash28
5:20 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Sorry, forgot to finish my thought...

They WILL however have an affect on steering IF they are strong enough to weaken the ridge.

Charley is a perfect example of that.
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1250. nash28
5:19 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Hey 23. They certainly aren't cool on the west coast. Damn near 90 in my neck of the woods.
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1249. nash28
5:17 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Thanks Pat:-)

Good to see you JP. That's why I posted his explanation on the main blog. It is very well broken down and easy for people to grasp. This is why I do not really put much stock in troughiness, because we had plenty of it in '04 and that didn't really turn out well.

Shortwave troughs (weak) will not have any affect on storms that form well below the 20N Lat line..
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1248. hurricane23
5:17 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
We'll the waters of the florida coast still remain quite cool but expect the them warm up in the coming weeks.
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1247. Patrap
12:13 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Im a listener ..LOL
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1245. nash28
5:07 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Hey there Pat.. For a minute there, I thought I was having a conversation with myself:-)
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1244. nash28
5:06 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Water temps at Clearwater Beach southward are at 89 degrees. Now THAT is warm!
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1243. Patrap
12:06 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
GOES IR Loop GOM...

Link
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1242. nash28
5:03 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
This from the 8:05am NHC discussion. Notice the bridging of the Highs....

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S
GEORGIA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 83W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR
20N100W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 25N AND W OF 92W. SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER S MEXICO. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 90W. LIKEWISE...SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MERGE WITH A WESTWARD
EXPANDING ATLANTIC RIDGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ALONG 28N.
CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE N GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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1241. HurricaneGeek
12:49 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Alright thanks nash
yeah its 95 degrees here
Member Since: Maio 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1240. nash28
4:48 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
My guess is sometime tomorrow.

Since it is quiet, he probably won't have one today. I could be wrong though..
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1239. HurricaneGeek
12:47 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Im here FLfish
Member Since: Maio 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1238. nash28
4:47 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Yeah, I'm here, barely...

Too damn hot for yard work!

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1237. HurricaneGeek
12:45 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Good Morning!!
does anyone know when Dr. will have a new blog update??
thank u
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1236. FLfishyweather
4:45 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
anyone here? hello? :(
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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