Tropical update; 4th warmest June on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:51 PM GMT em 26 de Julho de 2007

Share this Blog
1
+

Thunderstorm activity has increased over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning, thanks to a tropical wave moving westward at 20-25 mph. Winds have increased to 20-25 mph at the Gulf of Mexico buoy 275 miles SSE of Sabine Pass, Texas, but pressures are not falling. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 20 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur.

Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. However, there is a strong tropical wave about to emerge from the coast of Africa that may be something to watch early next week as it moves over the central Atlantic.

Fourth Warmest June on record
June 2007 was the fourth warmest June for the globe on record, and the period January - June of 2007 was the second warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global temperature record goes back 128 years. The global average temperature for June was +0.55�C (+0.99�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, June global temperatures were the third warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (eighth warmest on record). All land areas, with the exception of Argentina, were warmer than average during the period January-June 2007.

June temperatures were particularly warm across Southeast Europe, where temperatures soared to 40�C (104�F). At least 40 deaths were blamed on the heat, and electricity demand reached record levels. Winter in the Southern Hemisphere was colder than average in Argentina and Australia, and Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, received its first significant snowfall since 1981 on June 27.

23rd warmest June on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., June 2007 ranked as the 23rd warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 18th warmest such period on record. It was the second driest January-June and driest April-June on record in the Southeast. Alabama was hardest hit, with 86 percent of the state's pasture and range lands in poor or very poor condition in early July.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for June 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for June, for the years 1979-2007. June 2007 had the fourth lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog Friday.
Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 59 - 9

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

59. moonlightcowboy
3:06 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Caicos Sailor, nice blog! Your topic is terrific!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
58. GetReal
3:02 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
For the last several hours the core of the heaviest convection in the W. cenral GOM has remained nearly stationary, as it appears to me. The shear appear to be decreasing as an UL high appears to be building over the blob, as the convection continues to expand and deepen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
57. Chicklit
2:48 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Caicos...Neat. And a grim reminder of the realities when in 'strike zones' of hurricanes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
56. stormkat
2:58 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
no taco i dont think so the shear is just to strong for anything to develop....its only going to be a rainmaker...StormKat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
55. taco2me61
2:39 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Now I have been watching the Blob in the GOM and it does have high pressure aloft, also the sheer is falling aswell.... Now not to get to carried away but this could be a TD by the time it goes into TX/LA coast...

Now as for the Atlantic there are signs that show something forming out there by the end of next week but if it does we will have a long time to watch it.... Remember it takes approx: 10 - 12 days for a storm to cross the Atlantic....

Dr Masters thanks for the update, and with all due respect I think that the Tropics will start to heat up as it does this time of year...

Thanks

Taco:0)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
54. 900MB
2:53 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
P.S....I'm not saying the GOM blob will turn into Chantal...just noting conditions.
You have to admit that the increase in convection in just 7 hours has been quite impressive...someone between La. and the Fla panhandle is gonna get lots of rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
52. stormybil
2:53 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
thanks drak
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
51. Drakoen
2:50 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
MLC i fixed the link try it again.
Member Since: Outubro 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
50. CaicosRetiredSailor
10:46 AM EDT on July 26, 2007
Good Morning,

Thanks to a lot of you, I now have posted my first blog entry: Link

WU members discuss evacuation

It is a compilation of comments you left on Dr. Masters July 24 Blog concerning evacuation. I believe these comments are worth saving in a more accessible form for others to read. I have copied these comments, (over 120 comments by about 40 WU members)and it is my first entry.

Thanks,
CRS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
49. moonlightcowboy
2:45 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:37 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.
stormybil you can keep track of the wave here, there are alot of images you can use.
Link


...Drakoen, is there something wrong with this link? Won't load for me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
48. 900MB
2:43 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
I think shear is more like 15 nots in the Western Gulf, and more like 5 knots East of the Western La. line (drawn south). It's an unpredictable season, we'll see. Here is a chart of steering current and shear:
Steering and Shear in the Gulf
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
47. benirica
2:42 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
didnt realize the steering currents were that weak..
so are they like that all over the basin? if something forms out of this the worst would be to have it slowly build and strengthen and then sllloooooowwwwwllllyyyy pass over the islands that cant really take much rain and much less so much time of storm conditions.

i mean... Man-Yi was a big thing but a fast mover and it seems that it didnt do as much damage as if could have if it wouldve been moving at a normal pace for the type of storms we see over here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
46. Drakoen
2:41 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
thats what the model says. If the steering currents are weak then the wave moves slower.
Member Since: Outubro 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
45. eaglesrock
10:40 AM EDT on July 26, 2007
I saw that Drak.
44. benirica
2:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
hey drak let me see if ive read it right...
by saturday they the model is traking a 1010 - 1000 low and from saturday to august 1st it will only have made it to 36W?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
43. stormkat
2:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
yes eaglerock i do believe so....StormKat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
42. Dee77555
2:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
We dont need the rain had enough already for the last two months -

That thing has fired up fast though from what it was this morning. If a system comes this way in the coming weeks the gulf is hot......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
40. Drakoen
2:36 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
stormybil you can keep track of the wave here, there are alot of images you can use.
Link
Member Since: Outubro 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
39. stormkat
2:32 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
900 no chance for the gulf system...its going to be nothing but a rainmaker guy....la ms and texas will get the heaviest of the rain from this system....the system coming off the african coast will be chantal on the 3rd of august...watch this sst are rising and ssp are falling off the african coast...like i said everything is a go....StormKat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
38. Drakoen
2:35 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
eaglesrock look at the date on this.
Member Since: Outubro 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
37. Dee77555
2:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Look at the infrared Loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

I live in houston - weekend is gone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
36. nola70119
2:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Rain here can be as bad as hurricane......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
35. ryang
10:33 AM AST on July 26, 2007
Bil, by sometime this afternoon/evening...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
34. eaglesrock
10:31 AM EDT on July 26, 2007
Hello, Stormkat. Is the Aug. 3rd hurricane the African wave?
33. nola70119
2:32 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Got the radar, interesting......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
32. weathermanwannabe
9:28 AM CDT on July 26, 2007
Dr. M is very good with his analysis, and with the exception of Barry which threw a curve ball, Dr. M has been right on the money so far on development issues; given the fact that shear cannot be exactly predicted for more than 2-3 days, that it is high now and, the proximity of the GOM blob to land, I do not think that this will be tropical threat (but it will be rain threat)....
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9342
31. stormybil
2:31 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
hi when is the wave due to come off africa thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
30. observer12
2:27 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Can't relate at all to the 4th warmest June on record. Save for a couple days, it's been so cool and wet here in Texas, it's like we haven't even had a real summer...yet. Was actually cold outside in the rain last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
29. moonlightcowboy
2:28 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
SJ, has a really good site. I learn something new each time I visit. Thanks, SJ.

I recommend it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
28. nola70119
2:26 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
I was driving through Gulfport and Biloxi yesterday along the water.....any radar on that blob?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
27. 900MB
2:23 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Gulf system still has a chance..given direction it will have plenty of travel over very warm waters. Remember Barry wasn't given a chance with similar shear..I'd still keep an eye out.
Big wave coming off of Africa has a chance, but still seems too early for something off of Africa with pretty avg temps over CATL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
26. IKE
9:24 AM CDT on July 26, 2007
I noticed on the western Atlantic visible loop...the NCEP fronts added a 1011mb low just off of the coast of Mexico...in the Bay of Campeche..........Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
25. sonofagunn
2:17 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Regarding global warming, has there ever been any quantitative study published that instead of analyzing emmissions and gases, has just analyzed the amount of heat that we are putting into the atmosphere?

We all know that temperatures are hotter in cities than rural areas. Could the heating of the globe be the cumulative effect of urban heating?

After all, that CO2 coming out of your exhaust pipe is HOT. A/Cs shoot heat into the atmosphere. Concrete traps heat. Everytime we use any energy at all, heat is created. Maybe we're just creating heat faster than it dissipates out into space?
Member Since: Junho 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
24. stormkat
2:09 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
it wont be boaring for long as i said august 3rd we will have our first hurricane of the season...gentlemen and ladies start your engines its time to get really serious....dont worry about the area in the GOM to much shear and that low over texas wlll kill anything from happeneing...next week look out especially the caribbean sea its going to be very active few months...it will be interesting...StormKat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
23. GetReal
2:17 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Has anyone else observed that this blob in the W. central GOM appears to be under an UL high, and shear appears to be low over the core of the heaviest convection???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
22. Drakoen
2:18 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 2:17 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 2:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.
lol ryang. It has to develop a SFC low and persist for 6 hours (sometimes longer).


...updated criteria, Drakoen? lol. I gotcha. Thanks!


No thats the Navy requirement for an invest, i think.
Member Since: Outubro 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
21. ryang
10:17 AM AST on July 26, 2007
Drak, i know, just thought that because the GFS develops it around 25W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
20. Patrap
9:17 AM CDT on July 26, 2007
One can call in via the toll-free number during the show.And follow along in storm chat too. Its all on the site main page.
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
19. moonlightcowboy
2:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.
lol ryang. It has to develop a SFC low and persist for 6 hours (sometimes longer).


...updated criteria, Drakoen? lol. I gotcha. Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18. StormJunkie
2:14 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Looks like a little convection trying to refire over the wave...

laggie, I am not sure we are going to see this big strong high either. I think it will be much stronger then last year, but Dr M stated a couple of blogs back that he expected to see a series of weak troughs that will temporarily erode the high and then allow it to build back. IMHO this is fairly normal for H season, and is a likely scenario for this year.

BAck to work. See y'all later ☺

StormJunkie.com
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
16. moonlightcowboy
2:15 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Good morning, all! Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters!

Patrap, thanks for the BB reminder. Can we phone in a question, or email? Hope you're feeling better today!

Some interesting updates on CV waves, SAL here, this morning!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
15. swlaaggie
9:08 AM CDT on July 26, 2007
A week or so ago, Dr. Masters noted that the A/B high was forecasted to shift west and that we needed to be cognizant of a possible shift in the steering currents. This shift would raise the possibility of any tropical formation being directed away from the east coast and more towards the GOM.

Has anyone noted from the models that this westawrd shift episode was fairly shortlived as it appears that it(the A/B high) keeps shifting a little north and east and, in general, shrinking in coverage? If I am misreading/misunderstanding, please do not hesitate to correct me. That's how I learn.

tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
14. ryang
10:11 AM AST on July 26, 2007
As soon as this wave hits water, it's gonna be an invest... LOL?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
13. Drakoen
2:08 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
anyone have a link ot the ECMWF model?
Member Since: Outubro 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
12. quante
2:05 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Dr. M:

Been reading the NOVEL, STATE OF FEAR by Chrichton which constantly debunks global warming. Then I did a google search on global warming and found a bunch of studies saying no such thing happening. So what up with that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
11. Patrap
9:04 AM CDT on July 26, 2007
Be sure to listen to our own sandcrab,Butch Loper tonight on the BarometerBob Show.Hes the Emergency Manager for Jackson County,Mississippi. Bobs interview with Butch is sure to be a good listen They will discuss the Upgrades to Emergency Preparedness in Mississippi,as well as His experience with Hurricane Katrina and after.A link to the site can be found on my blog. Thanks
Member Since: Julho 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
10. Drakoen
2:06 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
thanks for the update jeff.
Member Since: Outubro 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
9. franck
2:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Thought that thing in the Gulf died last night.
Member Since: Agosto 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150

Viewing: 59 - 9

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
45 °F
Céu Encoberto